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<br />Start Times of Storms <br /> <br />Knowing the time of day when stor.ms occur is important since traffic <br />compounds problems of snow removal and enployees sometimes work overtime <br />when snow falls in the early evening or overnight. Observations are not <br />taken frequently enough at most cooperative observer sites to determine <br />time of fall. Researchers have studied time of fall at several sites in <br />Colorado, however, (Grant, ed., 1969; Crow, 1969) and their findings, <br />discussed below, are used to assign start times of each storm. <br /> <br />Figures 1-4 show variations in times of recorded snowfall at Hot <br />Sulphur Springs in central Colorado and at Ouray, Durango and Silverton <br />in the southwest. A marked peak in frequency during the early morning <br />followed by a dip around noon is typical at Hot Sulphur Springs and at <br />other stations in the north and central parts of the state (Grant, ed., <br />1969). The pattern at Ouray is somewhat similar. But in Durango, snow <br />is more likely to fall in the morning and less likely to fall in the late <br />afternoon and evening, and in Silverton snow is most likely to fall in <br />the late afternoon. Grant, ed., (1969) attributes these differences to <br />exposure--that is, to the location of observation stations relative to <br />surrounding mountains. <br /> <br />We used the probabilities of occurrence of snow depicted in Figures <br />1-4 to assign a start time to each stor.m randomly. The Hot Sulphur <br />Springs variation was used for counties :in north and central Colorado; <br />Ouray, Silverton and Durango variations were used for Ouray, San Juan, <br />and La Plata counties, respectively. <br /> <br />We assumed that the probability of storms starting at a given hour <br />is, in the long run, identical to the probability of snow falling during <br />the same hour. If, for exarrple, snow at a given station is twice as <br />likely in the early morning as in the early afternoon, the model assigns <br />start times that reflect this pattern. <br /> <br />-11- <br />