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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:40:38 PM
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4/24/2008 2:53:53 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Release of Potential Instability by Mesoscale Triggering - An Obective Model Simulation
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<br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />The raw1nsonde observations used to initialize <br />the model simulations were selected from days <br />with either (1) mesoscale organized convection, <br />which indicates the eKlstence of a mesoscale- <br />triggering mechanism that may result 1n lifting. <br />or (2) isolated or random convective clouds or <br />clear skies. GOES-TAP (Corbel" 19761 satellite <br />imagery was used to visually classify each day <br />from May to August of 1916 400 1977 at the <br />HIPLEX field site (see Matthews and Koshto, <br />19771. Then all model results were stratified <br />accordfng to the existence of mesoscale trig- <br />gering or random convection to determine if <br />there were significant thermodynamic differences <br />between these conditions. <br /> <br />2 hours of lifting; however, no clouds ~fre <br />diagnosed tn the no-lifting and 10-cm s <br />lifting simulations. The simulat10n with <br />20-00 S'l lifting showed that, although <br />the strong subsidence inversion was <br />sharply eroded by 4 hours of lifting (see <br />figure 5.1). no s1gniffcant clouds could <br />develop In this suppressed environment. <br /> <br />On August 24, 1977, strong development In the <br />fonn of a mesoscale line was observed in <br />satellite imagery at 2030 G.m.t., 150 km west <br />of GLO I figure 4.2). This 1 fne later moved <br />through western Kansas producing heavy <br />precipitation. In this case of observed <br />mesoscale triggering, the model sl~ulatlons <br />indicated that lifting would have s1gnlf- <br />fcant effects on cloud growth. The total <br />depth of seven clouds supported in this case <br />was 76 km. and significant total precipita- <br />tion (183 1MI1 was produced in the model <br />simulation. Heavy rain was observed <br />throughout western Kansas wfth 80 mm at <br />GLD. <br /> <br />Two examples of significant differences between <br />the mesoscale-triggered cases and random con- <br />vection were examined to illustrate important <br />effects of lifting on the release of avaflable <br />potential instability. <br /> <br />3. RESULTS <br /> <br />The model was a useful objective tool for <br />examining the effect of lifting on the release <br />of available potential instability. However, <br />the model could not detect many significant <br />differences in the thenllodynamlcs of days <br />having mesoscale triggering and those with <br />random or fsolated convection. This result <br />suggested that the three-dimensional atmos- <br />pheric dynamics may be the controlling factor <br />which deterMInes the ~pe of random or <br />organized mesoscale convection. <br /> <br />The soundfng on August 24 is significantly <br />less stable than that on June 30. and the <br />moisture content is much higher (see <br />figure 5.3). In this case, seven large <br />cumulonimbus (Cb) clo~ds were diagnosed by <br />the model under conditions of 20-c. S.I <br />lifting Isee figure 5.4). Careful examina- <br />tion of figure 5.3 shows that lifting causes <br />complicated changes in environmental telllper- <br />ature and MOisture and that clOud-environment <br />Interaction further complicates the resulting <br />thermodynamic structure. Strong coo11ng In <br />excess of 3. to 5 .C occurred in regions <br />where very stable lapse rates existed. as <br />shown in figure 5.1, between 70 and 50 kPa. <br />Upward moisture advection due to lifting also <br />produces large changes in environment <br />relative humidity, which permits stronger <br />cloud growth due to less entrainment erosion <br />of cloud buoyancy. The shape and magnitude <br />of the lifting profiles are discussed In <br />9reater detail in Lease and Matthews (1978). <br /> <br />3.1 Effect of lifting on Available <br />Potential Instabilfty <br /> <br />It was quite clear that latent instability <br />very often exists on the High Plains at <br />Goodland and Big Spring. On both mesoscale~ <br />triggered days and isolated random convection <br />days, the atmosphere was very sensitive to <br />lfft1ng. As the lifting amplitude increased, <br />considerably more clouds and deeper clouds <br />were supported in the IIlOdel, as Shown in <br />figures 2 and 3. In most cases, the MOdel was <br />unable to initiate convection without <br />lifting, as seen by the few clouds gel'lerated <br />in the nO-11ft cases. In nearly all cases. <br />the 20-em s' 11ft produced significant <br />convective development. <br /> <br />Differences between the sample of cases having <br />observed mesoscale triggering and that with <br />little or no observed mesoscale triggering <br />are discussed later in section 3.2. <br /> <br />MESOCU simulates the effect of mass contt- <br />nulty on cloud-environment mass balance by <br />producing local substdence. Subsidence <br />wa~s the environment, thus compensating for <br />the cooling effects of mesoscale lifting. <br />These complex interactions require an <br />objective numerical model to fully under- <br />stand their net effect on convective cloud <br />development. <br /> <br />3.2 Dlscrlmtnat10n Between Mesoscale- <br />triggered and Isolated Convection <br /> <br />Although MESOCU was able to determine the <br />effect of 11 ftlng on the release of available <br />potential instabf11ty, 1t was less successful <br />at distinguishjng between thermodynamic <br /> <br />Two cases ~ich clearly show differences in <br />the effect of llftjng occurred on June 30. <br />1917. and August 24, 1917, at Goodland, <br />Kansas (GlD). Clear skies in a ridge behind <br />a cold front prevailed at GLD on June 30, as <br />seen in figure 4.1. The IIOdel simulations <br />were unable to produce any significant <br />2 ., <br />convection on this day even, with O-cm s <br />lifting. Two high-based cumulus congestus <br />clouds only 3 km deep were produced after <br />
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