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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:40:36 PM
Creation date
4/24/2008 2:53:23 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Raingage Network Requirements from a Simulated Convective Complex Weather Modification Experiment
Date
7/14/1980
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />~""'~ ,,' ~~"i<:&j::';";;,-",,,,,,.t5l&,~..J1fi <br /> <br />': 'l9 <br /> <br />OCTOBER 1980 <br /> <br />::dI <br /> <br />l645 <br />1.5 <br /> <br />J>>~ <br />"j~ <br />L';.~' <br />,w <br /> <br />'rgs <br />'ra: <br />,(If; <br />~t:e <br />~ <br /> <br />~as <br />:tti <br />:'s <br />tl <br />ef~ <br />!S' <br /> <br /> .5 <br />. <br />~ 0 <br />.. <br />! <br />i <br />~ <br />z -.5 <br />j <br />... <br /> -1.0 <br /> <br />Ef.. <br />Ih <br /> <br />It'>j. <br />If-' <br />~- <br /> <br />lD <br />st <br />In <br />oJ <br /> <br />!l() <br />it. <br />'.'" "., <br />;;II' <br />tS <br /> <br />~~14:.-~~~:~,;~.~~~~~~~?t.cli~-<~~.".~-'"t~":.'';'~'1'''i :.t.:". <br /> <br />....;~...~:'7_,...'~..~...........JWo-.:...-Vrilt~,.__ <br /> <br />, <br />v It', l. <br /> <br />JAMES A. HEIMBACH, JR., AND ARLIN J3. SUPER <br />I <br /> <br />1181 <br /> <br /> <br />~5~_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ <br /> <br />1.0 <br /> <br />-1,5 <br /> <br />:~9~~o~_ _ _ _ .. _ <br /> <br />350 <br />eo... <br /> <br />50 <br /> <br /> <br />:soo <br /> <br />350 <br /> <br />400 <br /> <br />> 100 km2 per gage. For the larger storms, gage <br />spacing has little effect until several hundred kilo- <br />meters per gage is exceeded. For both large and <br />small storms, a 8 value of only 25% yields very large <br />numbers of CC's required. <br />Comparison of the f3 = 0.1 case of Fig. 5 with case <br />A of Fig. 6 leads, to implications concerning the <br />. value of forecasting for a CC weather modification <br />experiment. If a capability could be developed to <br />accurately forecast, before seeding, whether a par- <br />ticular CC would become large or small, the number <br />of cases required for a seeding experiment could be <br />substantially reduced. For 100 km2 per gage, a <br />= 0.5, f3 = 0.1 and 8 = 100%, about 240 CC's would <br />be required according to Fig. 5 where all cases were <br />considered. Roughly half as many cases would be <br />needed for the same conditions if the smaller CC's <br />of Fig. 6 were the experimental unit. The situation <br />is even better for the larger storms; however, it might <br />be argued that they are unlikely to be the experi- <br />mental unit in the near future due to complexities of <br />achieving a large change in rainfall by seeding. <br />Speculating, then, that the smaller 'CC's would <br />likely be the preferred experimental unit. Fig. 6 <br />shO\vs it would be desirable to have the area per g;lge <br />less than about 100 km2. Otherwise, the number of <br />ec's required increases rapidly. <br /> <br />100 150 200 250 <br />..... Sea4ed phle Non_6od 50mplel <br /> <br />FIG. 4. Convergence of four simulated experiments to a one-tailed a-level of 0.05. (These examples <br />used all 103 CC's derived from the complete radar footprint. The treatment effect was 25%). <br /> <br />'- <br /> <br />1000 <br />800 <br /> <br /> <br />600 <br /> <br /> <br />~ ~.O.lO <br /> <br />400 <br /> <br />i <br /> <br />. <br />.i 200 <br /> <br />. <br />... <br />" <br />. <br />4 <br /> <br />100 <br />60 <br /> <br />60 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />40 <br /> <br />20 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />\ ' <br />.--1- <br /> <br />'00 <br /> <br />200 <br /> <br />~ 3ro >350 <br /> <br /> <br />, ,aI s..dtd ph" NOfIII.d.d Sarnpln <br /> <br />FiG. 5. >;, ~rs of CCs required to reach example .a-prob- <br />ability levels tor a = 0.05 and S = 100% using entire 103 CC <br />data base. <br /> <br />.,.-.~.Mt"',~.1N <br /> <br />~~~"!,..~-..;" "'!_~_"~~.1:'t":~~f'"~,~~~~~_~~t~-"~~~_pT-~j':}."'~~~~,.~.;::~~\:: <br /> <br />~7':;f,.: ~1:.~.~~1~~~~{~~j~~~'~ ~,:- :r..,:~ <br />
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