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<br />. <br />'. <br /> <br />on a large number of cases. Initial Clark model simulations are examining model <br />sensitivity to initial conditions and increased resolution of complex terrain in western <br />Colorado using rawinsondes and MM4 soundings. <br /> <br />Initialization and Assessment of Model Simulations <br /> <br />Giorgi and Bates (1989) began a validation of the CCM-MM4 nested modeling <br />approach using observations for 40 months from January 1982 to December 1983, <br />and January 1988 to April 1989. They used initial conditions from ECMWF <br />(European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) analyses of observed data <br />gridded to a spatial resolution of2.8 by 2.8" and having a temporal resolution of 12 <br />h. MM4's lateral boundary conditions were adjusted every 12 h using the ECMWF <br />gridded data. These initial conditions were located at grid points that matched the <br />CCM T-42 (triangular spherical harmonic truncation at wave number 42) used'in <br />climate simulations. <br /> <br />Giorgi et al. (1992a) have validated mean monthly precipitation predicted by the <br />MM4 model during the 1982-83 and 1988-89 periods. They found that the <br />correlation coefficient between observed and modeled monthly precipitation varied <br />from 0.53 to 0.94 among each of six subregions of the Weste~rn United States. Over <br />the Central Rocky Mountains, cold season precipitation was reasonably well <br />simulated with a bias of 40%, however, the warm season bias was 157% in the base <br />runs. The revised horizontal diffusion method lowered this bias to.39% in the 1988- <br />89 simulations. Giorgi et al.(1992a) defined bias as the sum of the differences <br />between observed and model-predicted daily average precipitation in each subregion, <br />divided by the total number of station days for that subregion and season. This <br />model bias is a direct measure of the model error simulating a given variable over <br />a region. Their study was based on 390 daily observation stations in an area of -4.4 <br />million km2 in the West. The station density was about 11,000 km2 per gauge with <br />few high elevation gauges. This study focuses on the assessment of local area <br />precipitation in complex terrain using a higher density of - 930 km2 per gauge with <br />11 gauges above - 2700 m ms!. Modeled precipitation was compared with surface <br />precipitation data from NWS (National Weather Service) offices and cooperative <br />stations, and the Soil Conservation Service's SNOTEL (snow telemetry) remote high <br />elevation automatic stations. <br /> <br />Figure 2a shows a time-series comparison between observed high elevation <br />cumulative precipitation and MM4-predicted cumulative precipitation in the Gunnison <br />region during the 1982-83 water year (October I to September 30). Predictions by <br />MM4 were averaged over 8 grid points in the vicinily of 31 precipitation gauge sites. <br />Model daily average values and gauge averages were accumulated to form model and <br />observed daily cumulative means. This daily cumulative mean gives a measure of <br />the total precipitation observed from the beginning of a water year to a given date. <br />Precipitation observations were stratified by three elevation zones: < 2100 m, 2100 <br />to 2700 m, and > 2700 m msl and similarly accumulated into three daily cumulative <br />means. Figure 2a shows the time series of daily cumulative precipitation observed <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br />Matthews et al. <br />