WMOD00481

• Title: Managing Snowpack Augmentation Research
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

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used a "black box" approach. The "black box" in this case is the unkncrwn-
physical process within the cloud. Once a cloud with prescribed char-
acterisiics was identified and seeded, the results were determined sta-
tistically by precipitation measurements. The lack of reliable results
from this approach has demonstrated the need to improve the understand-
'ing of atmospheric processes.

Although there are similarities that have permitted systems of
cloud typing to develop, each cloud is different in some respects from
all others. This is true of clouds within the same storm system and
within the same region. This demonstrates that an understanding of the
physical relationships that occur within a c.loud are critical to the
transferability of a modification technology. Even with recognized
differences in climatology between widely sl~parated areas, the physical
relationship between similar cloud types will be the same. -

The acceptance of these concepts has led Project Skywater in the
direction-of: (1) developing more sophisticated tools; (2) collecting
data on each physical link of the process; (3) concentrating researc~ in
larger, longer, and more expensive projects; and (4) following a phased
approach, including exploratory and confirmatory stages. Dedication and
patience will be required to see the research through to successful com-
pletion.

The 1978 report to the Secretary of COffi.T!le-rce from the Weather Mod-
ification Advisory Board stated that:

"The technology is still in its infancy essentially because
it is based on so imperfect an. understanding of the physical
eventsii tries to influence. Improper use carries substantial
risks, including the possibility of decreasing rather than
increasing precipitation.

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"Despite this record of the first generation of attempts to
manage weather as a resource, the Weather Modification
Advisory Board 'is persuaded (on the basis of evidence and
analysis set forth at some length in this report) that a
usabl~ technology for systematically and extensively en-
hancing rain and snow by seeding certain type~ of clbuds
is scientifically possible and within sight" (5).

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A significant change has occurred in Project Skywater I s management
approach since 1973 when 12 field experiments were underway and 4 add-
itional were being planned. The present program stresses careful design
and a more concentrated effort to answer renlaining scientific questions.

A Project Director and Site Director for each major field program
are now designated within OARM. Responsibility for major program de-
C1Slons rests with the Project Director. The Site Director participates
in daily decisions, monitors contracts, coordinates activities, maintains
a safe work environment, and declares project suspensions. This organi-
zational arrangement is in effect on the HIPLEX and sepp programs and
will be followed on the Colorado River Basin Project.

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Foehner