WMOD00481

• Title: Managing Snowpack Augmentation Research
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

In 1973 the OARH budget included funds for 44 contracts ,or agree-
ments with research groups and data collecting agencies. Field programs
were underway or being planned at l6 sites, lO ol which ~~re for winter
orographic research (see Figure l). In addition to the field experiments,
a variety of groups were hard at work seeking answers to questions rang-
ing from ecological impacts to economic benefits. Dr. Archie M. Kahan,
Chief of OAR.J.'1, said, "He appeared to be well on our \-lay toward aehieving
the seemingly desirable goal of developing the technology for adding to
the nation's water resources in an economically feasible and socially
accepatable way" (1).

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The FY 1974 budget was impacted by a different administrative per-
ception of managing western water resources. Emphasis shifted from aug-
mentation of water resources to improved management and conservation of
existing water supplies. The Project Skywater budget was reduced to
$3.9 million, forcing termination or drastic reduction of many ongoing
research efforts. A congressional directive to plan and mount a new
experimental effort designed to reduce the scientific imcertainties of
seeding summer cumulus clouds in the High Plains added to the difficulty
of maintaining a large orographic research program. The new project,
called HIPLEX (the High Plains Cooperative Program), was to account for
the use of over half the Project Skywater funds for many years into the
future. Management decisions made to reduce a large-scale effort invo v-
ing a large number of dedicated people are much more difficult than
those required to expand a program. The decisions on how to adjust Pro-
ject Skywater were based on a combination of factors including area need,
expected return, technology advancement, and political support.

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THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN PILOT PROJECT

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The CRBPP (Colorado River Basin Pilot Project), a randomized winter
orographic seeding experiment located in the San Juan Mountains of south-
west Colorado, was judged to most closely meet the desired requirements
for a large research project. The Colorado River Basin is projected to
encounter the most severe water shortages of any major area within the
United States. The Colorado River Basin Project Act of 1968 directed the
.Secretary of Interior to investigate means of water augmentation, includ-
ing weather modification. The CRBPP was designed by scientists at Colo-
r~do State University and modeled after the Climax, Colorado experiment
which had a positive evaluation. Widespread water user support to con-
tinue the research was also evident in the Basin.

Field operations were concluded on the CRBPP 1n 1975 after 5 winter
seasons of.randomized seeding. Final analysis of the project was com-
pleted in 1976 by Aerometric Research, Inc. The analysis was complicated
by difficulties encountered in forecasting storms in advance for 24-hour
experimental periods. Many unsuitable clouds 'were seeded; and little or
no snow fell on some experimental days. It was also discovered that, in
numerous cases, seeding material remained in the project area longer than
the planned seeding period. This resulted in contamination of experimen-
tal periods randomly selected as no-seed cases.

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"As a result, the total unstratified statistic&l analysis found,
no difference between precipitation on seeded experimental days
and control days. However, when days of missed forecasts were

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Foehner