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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:39:19 PM
Creation date
4/18/2008 10:02:39 AM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Evaluation of Idaho's 1992-1993 Winter Cloud Seeding Program
Date
10/1/1993
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />, ",I <br /> <br />An attempt was made to improve the relationship by excluding sites below 7000 feet <br />elevation. All 14 control sites were above 7000 feet, but only 4 target sites were that high. <br />Seeding might be expected to have the greatest effect on these higher target sites. Little <br />improvement in the R-value resulted from this computation, which produced a value of 0.88l. <br />Although the plot is not shown, the 1993 data point almost reached 2 standard errors of <br />estimate. One nonseeded year had a higher positive departure, and one had almost as high <br />a departure. <br /> <br />The low correlation coefficients between the target and control sites, and therefore low <br />predictability, are suspected to partially result from the difference in mountain barrier <br />orientation. The axis of the target area mountains is generally east-west; that of the control <br />site barriers is approximately northwest-southeast. Orographic lift, liquid water condensate <br />production, and subsequent snowfall tend to be greatest when winds are almost <br />perpendicular to mountain barriers. Therefore, the t:arget and control areas can be expected <br />to be most affected by different phases of a storm or even by different storms. <br /> <br />A further attempt to improve the degree of association was made by examining R-values <br />between the average of the 9 target sites above 6500 feet and individual control sites. <br />Seeding was expected to have a higher probability of affecting these higher target sites. Each <br />individual control site in tables 1 and 2 was used in these calculations. Individual R-values <br />ranged from 0.67 for the distant site 47 (southwest of Boise) to 0.927 at site 33, west of the <br />target. Surprisingly, four of the five highest values, from 0.876 to 0.900, occurred at control <br />sites northwest of Boise. That region consists of several north-south ridges, dissimilar from <br />the east-west ridge that forms the target area. <br /> <br />It is speculated that the high R-values associated with the distant sites northwest of Boise <br />occurred because that region is similar to the target region for storms tracking from the south <br />to southwest. Few significant mountains exist for such storm tracks for a considerable <br />distance upwind from either the northern upper Snake target or the control area northwest <br />of Boise. In contrast, nearby controls west to northwest of the northern upper Snake target <br />are located downwind from the Boise target, and high mountains east of that target, for south <br />to southwest flow. <br /> <br />Only three sites initially selected as controls for the northern upper Snake, and listed in table <br />2, had R-values above 0.865. Several of these nearby potential control sites had R-values in <br />the relatively low 0.67 to 0.80 range. <br /> <br />A reasonably high R-value was sought by combining control sites from tables 1 and 2 that <br />had individual R-values exceeding 0.85. The highest value obtained was 0.943 using the four <br />Boise northwest controls (sites 4, 5, 15 and 48), sites 32 and 33 west of the target, and site <br />36 northwest of the target. The results are shown on figure 10 where the 1993 data point <br />is just above the regression line, equivalent to a 5-percent (1.0-inch SWE) increase. Similar <br /> <br />23 <br />
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