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II. THE SCOPE OF WEATHER MODIFICATION Deliberate weather modification is likely to be attempted when potential beneficiaries foresee benefits to them, and perhaps to the community at large, in excess of their own costs. In this respect it is similar to application' of, pesticides and other agents whose ecological effects are attracting increasing public attention. Weather modification differs from pesticide treatment, however, in that there is no feasible way even in principle to confine application to a single land ownership, type of land use, or ecological community. It is inevitable that effects of weather modification will extend to others than those directly responsible for initiating it. ~ The fact that weather modification will be applied in antici- pation of direct economic gains likewise distinguishes it from such environmental changes as air pollution. The latter, although its effects also usually extend beyond the jurisdi~tion of those direct- ly responsible, occurs because the cost of prevention is deemed to outweigh the losses incurred, not because anyone perceives a posi- tive social benefit from polluted air. Social and institutional constraints, as well as technological problems, suggest at least three time scales at which planned wea- ther modification programs are likely to become operational. Some are already technically, and perhaps economically , feasible or show promise of becoming so within five years. Others are more problem- atical, but may be effective by about 1980. Still others, mostly involving major interference with the general circulation of the at- mosphere or the oceans, and resulting in alteration of the overall climate of entire regions, are farther off. These more distant pro- grams, which would open a range of social, economic, and biological consequences staggering to contemplate, are specifically excluded from this report. The present status of weather modification, the statistical difficulties in evaluating its success, and some of the political issues involved in its eventual control, are well dis- cussed in a non-technical article by MacDonald (1968). Other authori- tative discussions are those by Houghton (1968) and the RAND Corpora- tion (1969). Principal, economic objectives of kinds of weather modification that may be feasibl,e~ at l,east on a pil,ot basis: ,- .., (1) Within the next five years (in approximate order of feasibility and importance) ! a. Reducing air traffic delays by clearing fog from airport runways. b. Increasing runoff, either from rain or melting snow, into water supply and power reservoirs. 12