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<br />Improved Site <br />Characterization <br />for Ground Water <br />and Contaminant <br />Transport Modeling <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br />The most difficult task in evaluating <br />ground-water flow and contaminant trans- <br />port problems involves the description of <br />subsurface conditions that govern flow. <br />Geologic condi.tions can be complex. <br /> <br />JEFFREY A. FARRAR <br />Materials Engineering Branch <br /> <br />DR. EILEEN POETER <br />Colorado School of Mines <br /> <br />Ground-water management of regional <br />aquifers in areas such as Tucson and Los <br />Angeles is becoming increasingly critical <br />as water supplies become limited. Contami- <br />nant transport in ground water causes <br />major concerns, particularly near hazard- <br />ous waste sites. However, geohydrologists <br />can model ground-water flow and contami- <br />nant transport with powerful three- <br />dimensional models. Model meshes with <br />fixed flow properties are normally simpli- <br />fied realizations of the subsurface based on <br />subjective interpretation of site data by the <br />modeler. Modelers would benefit further <br />from a program that would help generate <br />multiple realizations of the subsurface, and <br />the powerful computing capability avail- <br />able today can provide such help. Using <br />geostatistics, a program can consider and <br />honor all forms of site data and generate <br />multiple conditions to aid in decision <br /> <br />analyses. This tool allows the evaluation of <br />best and worse case scenarios for decision <br />analyses. <br />Reclamation has a cooperative agree- <br />ment with the Colorado School of Mines <br /> <br />..~- <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />- <br /> <br />to develop software for evaluating site <br />uncertainty. This software serves as the <br />foundation for objective integration of <br />field data. Dr. Eileen Poeter (CSM Depart- <br />ment of Geology and Geological <br />Engineering) and two students, William <br />Wingle and Sean McKenna, are working <br />with Jeffrey Farrar and ground-water <br />hydrologists in Reclamation to produce . <br />such software, UNCERT. UNCERT will <br />evaluate uncertainty associated with assess- <br />ment of flow and contaminant migration in <br />the subsurface. The results of this program <br />will provide probabilistic information to <br />facilitate decisionmaking for consumptive <br />use ground-water resource issues and/or <br />risk evaluation from contaminant transport <br />problems. <br />