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<br />long-term effects of precipitation augmentation have been moderated. <br />The complexity of this analysis question was recognized in 1977 by <br />Howell: <br /> <br />"It has come to be recognized that, in the settings so far investi- <br />gated, the potential disturbing effect of weather modification is <br />overwhelmed by other disturbances to the status quo, some manmade and <br />some natural. <br /> <br />I <br /> <br />I <br />J <br />I <br />I <br /> <br />"From this state of affairs, two broad conclusions are now being <br />drawn. First, since investigation of the points of specific environ- . <br />mental impact thought to have the highest potenti al for effects <br />from weather modification has indicated no clearly adverse effects, <br />emphasis on hurry-up studies to ward off imagined catastophes, such as <br />species extinctions, no longer appears justified. Second, assessment <br />of long-term effects of weather modification on the environment as a <br />whole is assuming relatively greater importance, and means for such <br />assessment are under review." [13, pp. 499-500J <br /> <br />Thus, it is apparent now that long-term monitoring of operational cloud <br />seeding effects is needed to develop a reliable picture of environmental <br />effects. Responses of the vegetative regime are of particul ar interest <br />because of its comparative sensitivity and its key place in the food <br />chain. <br /> <br />Certain results of cloud seeding, such as increased snowpack, can be <br />significant and beneficial rather than adverse due to the controlling <br />factors of the project design and project suspension criteria. Project <br />suspension criteria precludes cloud seeding activity during weather con- <br />ditions that could jeopardize public safety or cause environmental damage. <br />A recent example of development of a suspension criteria system for a <br />winter cloud seeding project is the experience in the Sierra Cooperative <br />Pil ot Proj ect. [8, 11J <br /> <br />1. The Initial Phase <br /> <br />As described in Section II of this report, each of the three cloud <br />seeding options has two phases. In each case, the initial phase <br />involves installation of meterological and hydrological observation and <br />data collection networks. Seeding opportunity, climatological studies, <br />seeding mode studies, ground-based seeding studies, and technology <br />transfer studies in different subbasins would be included in the initial <br />phase for the 10- and 8-year options. Environmental and social impact <br />studies required for the second phase of the program and for the opera- <br />tional phase would be undertaken. <br /> <br />All meterological and engineering activities conducted during the <br />initial phase of each of the options are identical to lead-in activities <br />found in research-mode cloud seeding. These activities are covered by <br />the Project Skywater Programmatic FES [2J and were discussed in the <br />Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project Environmental Assessment [8J, and <br />are also covered by Departmental and WPRS Instructions providing for <br />categorical exclusions for data collection and other activities of a <br /> <br />10 <br />