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<br />CHAPTER 2 <br />OPERATIONAL PLAN <br /> <br />All aspects of the operational plan and procedures and their changes <br />throughout the duration of the project as derived from the original design of <br />the Pilot Project are presented in this Chapter. <br /> <br />" <br /> <br />2. I RANDOMIZA TION PLAN <br />Seeding for the five-year Pilot Proj ect was done on a random basis to <br />assure that the resulting evaluations were both comprehensive and scientifi- <br />cally sound. Block randomization was selected at the program outset as a <br />means of achieving the greatest chance for accumulating nearly equal numbers <br />of seeded and non-seeded events in each analysis subset after stratification. <br />A randomized schedule of 400 events was developed in advance by the <br />Statistical Laboratory at Colorado State University to give a 50- 50 split of <br />seeded vs non-seeded experimental days in blocks of 10-40 days. With block <br />randomization on a 50- 50 split, it was thought that better chances for prelimi- <br />nary analysis of each of the season's total operations could be assured. In <br />addition, it was believed that removal of experimental days both seeded and <br />non-seeded from the main analysis set due to suspended seeding in the event <br />of avalanche hazards, exceptionally heavy snowfall, or other restrictions could <br />be better handled within this 50- 50 randomized format. <br />The randomized seed/no-seed decisions were provided by the Bureau of <br />Reclamation in sealed envelopes numbered consecutively from I to 34. These <br />envelopes were opened in numerical order only after a comprehensive forecast <br />had determined that a subsequent 24- hour experimental day fulfilled the seeding <br />criterias as specified by the Project Design. This system was used during the <br />1970-71 season but was discontinued prior to the beginning of the 1971-72 season. <br />For the remaining four years of the Pilot Project, the random decisions <br />were listed in a special file of the Computer Sharing Service's computer. Through <br />use of the time-share computer terminal, a decision was obtained by calling for <br />program DURAN. Following a RUN command, the computer printed the deci- <br />sion's number, the YES SEED or DON'T SEED response, and the date and time <br />the program was run. Following the access of a decision, the next decision was <br />made available for access by the computer and remained available until eventually <br />accessed. <br /> <br />2-1 <br />