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<br />cloud properties reasonably well when the sounding is taken close to the <br />time of cloud development. The average observed cloud radius in these <br />cases was approximately 2.7 km. Examination of the 1200 G.m.t. early <br />morning sounding (table 3) showed that the correlations were poorer and <br />errors were much greater than the early afternoon results, which were <br />closest to aircraft observations. This small sample of verification <br />statistics tends to support the need for local afternoon soundings near <br />developing clouds in space and time for best model simulations. Note that <br />13 of the 26 soundings had errors in cloud-top height within 500 m of that <br />observed. Observed cloud-top heights ranged from 5.3 to 13.7 km; whereas, <br />model-predicted cloud-top heights ranged from 3.3 to 13.6 km for this set <br />of 3-km cloud radius cases. The average observed cloud-top height was <br />8.65 km; however, the average cloud-top height predicted by the model <br />varied as a function of input cloud radius. <br /> <br />1 <br /> <br />This comparison between model and aircraft observations is not intended to <br />rigorously verify the model. The model predicts a spectra of clouds <br />depending upon the initial updraft radius. Caution must be used in <br />interpretation of model results due to the sensitivity of the model to <br />"updraft radius" and cloud-base height. These properties must be care- <br />fully matched with those of observed clouds in comparison of individual <br />clouds (Warner, 1970). This comparison simply indicates that the model is <br />able to diagnose basic cloud properties such as base height and cloud top <br />which can be used to broadly classify the potential for convective develop- <br />ment from a local rawinsonde. Hence, the model is viewed as a more <br />comprehensive Showalter (1953) or Totals Totals Index (Miller, 1972) of <br />convective development to examine the natural variability of thermodynamics <br /> <br />16 <br />