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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:37:39 PM
Creation date
4/16/2008 11:05:22 AM
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Weather Modification
Title
WMO Training Workshop on Weather Modification for Meteorologists - Lecture Notes
Date
12/1/1979
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />8 - <br /> <br />effects. <br /> <br />(f) The precipitation efficiency of cloud systems combined with their total precipitation <br />needs to be assessed in order to provide insight into the question of ~ptimization of <br />static seeding techniques. <br /> <br />3.3.3 Proof of seeding effect: Some of the most successful weather modific'ation experi- <br />ments in the past have been conducted in two stages: exploratory and confirmatory. The <br />results of a randomized exploratory experiment are often ambiguous until pOJ.>t hoc. strati- <br />fications of meteorological conditions are conducted. These may reveal that a modified <br />seeding strategy or a restriction of seedable events would produce significant statistical <br />results. To test whether the results of this pOJ.>t hoc. stratification were due to chance, <br />a confirmation experiment should be designed. <br /> <br />Until sufficient knowledge has been accumulated about the PEP site and its meteor- <br />ological characteristics, it is difficult, to specify the seeding strategy with sufficient <br />accuracy for PEP to become a confirmatory experiment. However, the Panel believes that <br />building upon worldwide experience, by appropriate observations during SSP-3 and the design <br />and set-up phase, a sufficiently refined seeding strategy can be devised to .avoid the <br />exploratory phase. ' <br /> <br />With the help of satellite data and synoptic evaluation - which could establish <br />the "normality" of the first SSP-3 year - it is very likely that the probable suitability <br />for PEP of any given site could be assessed to warrant expansion into seeding trials <br />involving tracer experiments. Such a combined purpose of SSP-3 could then give an adequate <br />basis for a subsequent one-year planning and design period for the preparat~on of PEP. <br /> <br />I <br />statisticallyJevaluated seed- <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />3.3.4 Operational aspects: <br />ing experiment. It requires: <br />- a seeding sub-programme; <br />- a precipitation measurement sub-programme; <br />- a statistical evaluation sub-programme. <br /> <br />The core programme of PEP is the <br /> <br />An important part of the seeding sub-programme is the decision of whether a .given day is <br />suitable as an experimental unit. This depends on the assessment of: <br />- the synoptic situation including satellite and radar data; <br />- cloud characteristics. <br /> <br />Supporting sub-programmes for statistical and physical evaluations are: <br />- micro-physical cloud dynamic research (based largely on aircraft measurements); <br />- synoptic studies; <br />- radar and satellite studies (geo-stationary, visible, infra-red, and ;polar <br />orbiting for other wave length ranges); <br />- conceptual and numerical models; <br />- tracer studies. <br /> <br />Further studies must be directed toward: <br />- environmental impact (ecological and societal); <br />- economic analysis of the value of additional rainfall; <br />- hydrological consequences. <br /> <br />It should be stated that extra area precipitation effects can be studied if the <br />area size for precipitation and cloud physics investigations is expanded sufficiently <br />beyond the primary target and control areas. <br /> <br />The organization of the experiment into sub-programmes will be addressed in an <br />operational plan which should contain a statement of priorities for these activities. <br /> <br />!; <br /> <br />co <br />
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