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<br />3 <br /> <br />Model Forecasts of EN SO from Jan 2008 <br /> <br /> <br />i: 1 .u ._.,U.U.U,U. <br /> <br />II <br />>0- 0.5 .--..-...--.--.-....--. <br />,...:( <br />I- <br />,~ 0 <br />'<t <br /> <br />this magnitude have had a ~ -<],5u_.uu_'u <br /> <br />Z <br /> <br />tendency to continue for another I _1u <br />year (54-57; 73-76; 98-01), <br />much more so than EI Ninos. <br /> <br />I: I: <br /> <br />2.5 ---- --... ---- ----. --- <br /> <br />2 . u.. - .,' u. u. - y u. <br /> <br />1.5 . u.. - .,' u. u. _ y u. <br /> <br />i: 1 .u ._.,U.U.U,U. <br />>- <br />Ui <br />E <br />g 0.5 . u.. - .'. u. u. _~. u. <br />...:( <br />~ <br />(/) 0 <br />"<l: <br />C") <br />o <br />~ -<],5u_.uu_'u <br />Z <br /> <br />-1 .u <br /> <br />-1.5 <br /> <br />-2 . u.. - .'. u. u. _". u. <br /> <br />des <br /> <br />-2,5 <br />ON D Dae <br />2007 <br /> <br />;FORECAST ; <br /> <br />DJF <br /> <br />JFM FMA <br />2008 <br /> <br />MAM AMJ <br /> <br />MJJ <br /> <br />JJA <br /> <br />JAS ASO <br /> <br />Historically, La Nina events of <br /> <br />-. . <br /> <br />Dynami=lMooal Latest ENSO forecasts from 14 <br />numerical & 8 statistical <br />forecast models (below) vs. two <br />: ~~::~AMAI months prior (left). Most <br /> <br />UKMO <br />· KMASNU models ease the current event <br />. ESS~ ICM <br /> <br />~~~~t;'~o~~ towards 'normal' without quite <br />,Statis1icaIMooal reaching it. <br />a CPC MRKOV <br />Model Forecasts of EN SO fromMar 2008 <br /> <br />. NASA G MAO <br />. N::: EP CFS <br />. JMA <br />. SCRIPPS <br />. LDEO <br /> <br />Q <br />() <br />o <br />o <br />o <br />Q <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />I: I: <br /> <br />2,5 . u.. - n. u. u. u. u. . u. _ __ u.u. . u. u u. u <br /> <br />Dynamical Mooal: <br />. NASA G MAO <br />. N::: EP CFS <br />. JMA <br />. SCRIPPS <br />. LDEO <br />. AUSIPOAMA <br />. ECMWF <br />UKMO <br />. KMA SNU <br />. ESS~ ICM <br />. ECHAt"VMOM <br />. COLA AI\O M <br />. MatFRAN::: E <br />. JPN-F~GC <br /> <br />2 .u.._.,.u.u._yu. .,_.___u.,_. ._,.u u._, <br /> <br />1.5 . u.. - .,' u. u. _ y u. ., _. _ __ u., _. . _,. u u. _, <br /> <br />SON <br /> <br />-1.5 <br /> <br /> <br />-2 . u.. _.. u. u. _". u. <br /> <br />. - - ~7~4Statis1ical Mooal <br />Q CPC MRKOV <br />CDC L1M <br />CPC CA <br />o CPC CX;A <br />o CSU CLlPR <br />Q UBC NNET <br />Q FSU REGR <br />o LCLA- TCD <br />NDJ <br /> <br />des ;FORECAST ; <br /> <br />-2,5 <br />DJF Fab <br />2008 <br /> <br />FMA MAM At..u <br /> <br />MJJ <br /> <br />JJA <br /> <br />JAS ASO <br /> <br />SON OND <br />