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<br />The European model's September <br />forecast (left) was anticipating moderate <br />La Nina conditions through the end of <br />01 2007, hinting at a warm-up thereafter; <br /> <br />- -- -- - - -- -- , <br /> <br />NIN03.4 SST anomaly plume <br />ECMWF foreeas1 from 1 Dee 2007 <br /> <br />NIN03A SST anomaly plume <br /> <br />ECMWF forecas1 from 1 Sep 2007 <br />IJbnthly mean anomalies relat'-'e b IleEP a:ljLEted 01\'2 1971 -;;;)00 climatology <br /> <br />r--- - <br />I <br /> <br />- System 3 <br /> <br />1 I <br /> <br />00 .... ...... <br /> <br />~ <br />~ <br />~ <br />cd <br />E <br />g-1 <br />q: <br /> <br /> <br />- System 3 <br /> <br />tA:mthty mB3n aoom.:lIies rel3tive b tlCEP a::tjus.ted OIv2 1971-2:)00 climatology <br /> <br /> <br />As it turned out, the tropical Pacific cooled I EO <br />off more than expected (-2C vs. -IC), but <br />has indeed recovered dramatically this <br />I spring. However, a fast transition into EI <br />Nino appears out of the question. <br /> <br />'. <br /> <br />..._....+ <br /> <br />.. <br />+... <br />'. <br />". <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />MAR APR ~~y JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEG JAN FE8 <br />2007 2008 <br /> <br />00 ... <br />fir ". <br />:2. ...... <br />~ ...... <br />tll ". <br /> <br />j-l ............ <br /> <br />....... <br /> <br />Forocast issUG da te: 15 Ssp axJ7 <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />J UN J UL AUG S EP cx;r i'DV D EG JAN FE8 MAR A <br />2007 2008 <br /> <br />Forocast issue date: 15 Doc 2fXJ7 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />-1 <br /> <br />NIN03.4 SST anomaly plume <br />ECMWF foreeas1 from 1 Mar 2008 <br /> <br />lA:mthty me.an aromalies relative b tlCEP a::tjus.ted Olv2 1971-Zloo climatology <br /> <br />- System 3 <br /> <br />--, <br /> <br /> <br />-1 <br /> <br />o <br /> <br />~ <br />tll <br />E .. <br />o ~. <br /><:: -1 '. <br /><( '. <br />..... ,~'~ <br /> <br />.... I' <br />........... ..- <br />. .- <br />...... /" <br />........ <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />-2 <br /> <br />. ~"". <br />SEP cx;r NCN DEe JAN FE8 MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT i'I:)\/ <br />2007 2008 <br /> <br />Forocast issue date: 15 Mar 2fXJ8 <br /> <br />CBCMWF <br />