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<br />2. The second and somewhat stronger level of confirmation will have been <br />achieved if the adjusted P values also indicate positive treatment <br />effects in FT and TT rainfall in the six hours after initial seeding <br />for the B days. Again, failure to satisfy this level of conf'irmation <br />precludes moving on to the third and final level. <br /> <br />3. The third and highest level of confirmation will have been achieved <br />if the adjusted P values also indicate positive treatment effects in <br />FT and TT rainfall in the six hours after initial seeding for the A & <br />B days. <br /> <br />According to these specifications, FACE-2 failed to confirm the results of <br />FACE-1 (Woodley et al., 1983). The first and weakest level of confirmation was <br />not achieved. Contrary to the confirmatory specifications and the hypothesized <br />conceptual model of seeding effects, the mean rainfall time profiles peaked <br />earlier on seed days than on non-seed days. Since the first level of confir- <br />mation was not achieved, progressive consideration of the other confirmatory <br />analyses was precluded. <br /> <br />Exploratory analyses were then conducted to determine if seeding effects were <br />indicated. Most of the FACE-1 analyses wre repeated on the FACE-2 data, espe- <br />cially the covariate analyses which were precluded from the confirmatory speci- <br />fications. The most important of the replicated analyses indicated that the <br />seed day FT and TT rainfalls were larger than the respective non-seed day rain- <br />falls, but the rainfall increases were small and statistically non-significant <br />(Woodley et al., 1983). More recently, additional exploratory analyses have <br />attempted to assess treatment effects in FACE-1 and FACE-2 through a guided <br />exploratory linear modelling approach (Flueck et al., 1984). The individual and <br />residual linear model results suggest that positive target area treatment <br />effects are indicated in both FACE-1 and 2. The comparable yearly results indi- <br />cate that seven of the eight summers during which FACE-1 and 2 was conducted had <br />indications of rainfall increases due to seeding. In one year a rainfall <br />decrease due to seeding is indicated. <br /> <br />Woodley et al., (1983) suggest that the probable reasons for the relatively weak <br />FACE-2 results are: a) an unknown and possibly intermittent seeding effect, b) <br />inadequate predictor equations that account for natural rainfall variability <br />and, c) a limited sample size. Since the FACE program did not directly and <br />systematically measure the meteorological processes relevant to the precipita- <br />tion process in the FACE clouds and the intermediate responses to seeding, <br />understanding of the physical reasons for the tantalizing FACE-1 and 2 results <br />will not be possible. <br /> <br />4. SCPP <br /> <br />The SCPP (Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project) is a winter orographic cloud <br />research program with the goal of developing a practical cloud seeding capabi- <br />lity for increasing the streamflow of the American River Basin of the Central <br />Sierra Nevada of California. The primary scientific objective of SCPP is to <br />define those conditions giving rise to precipitation increases, decreases or no <br />change by the prescribed treatment of winter orographic clouds and cloud <br />systems. <br /> <br />5 <br />