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<br />ASPECTS OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCEMENT <br /> <br />11 <br /> <br />This statement was based on the potential to prove the technology <br />through research. Although a certain economic objective might be attain- <br />able through cloud seeding, this is not in itself sufficient justification for <br />launching an operational program (Dennis 1980). It is unlikely that every <br />effect of added rain or snow will be anticipated, but efforts should be <br />made to predict as many changes and impacts as possible (Stroup 1973). <br />Rational decision-making still calls for a valid benefit-cost analysis. <br />Evaluating economic benefits and liabilities of weather modification ac- <br />curately requires an understanding of the technology itself. The user <br />should know when precipitation can be or is altered, the amount of <br />increase that can be anticipated from individual weather episodes and in <br />aggregate, and with what benefits and side effects. In all, the practitioner <br />has much better information than existed a decade ago, but the following <br />general assessment still remains in force. <br /> <br />Scientific uncertainty currently exists regarding the effectiveness of <br />such technologies. The results of economic evaluation will depend <br />heavily on the assumptions made about the effectiveness of the <br />technology; therefore, the economic evaluation is also uncertain <br />(USDC 1979). <br /> <br />The alternatives available now are to rE~ly on current information to <br />solve today's problems or to postpone action until still more is known. The <br />fundamental science of cloud seeding is sound. More concrete and quanti- <br />tative evaluations of potentials, results, and effects have emerged in the <br />past decade (Section 4 of this manual; Reinking and Meitin 1989; Reinking <br />1992). Also, recent studies have significantly increased the understanding <br />and reduced the uncertainty of the economic effects of changes in rainfall <br />in selected crop-growing regions, and a high economic value will continue <br />to be placed on added water in arid and semiarid regions. Further signifi- <br />cant advances can be expected. However, the technology has yet to reach <br />the final point at which the actual change in the amount of precipitation <br />due to seeding can be measured accurately over the area of a watershed. <br />Many studies highlight the complexities of identifying and weighing <br />anticipated economic benefits and costs to various segments of society <br />and elements of the economy. "Failure to distinguish between net eco- <br />nomic benefit and transfer effects [as in redistribution of wealth] has <br />given rise to endless difficulty in the analysis of water projects in the <br />past" (Crutchfield 1973). Crutchfield advises that "there is no need to <br />perpetuate the confusion in assessing new technologies." Appropriate <br />measures of desirable or undesirable financial effects of enhanced pre- <br />cipitation are possible but depend on point of view, whether local, na- <br />tional, or global, and the geographical extent and nature of economic <br />impact is a critical issue. <br />On the local scale, for example, added snowfall can represent economic <br />gains for ski areas but added costs for highway departments. Private <br />cloud seeding operators will probably be unable to collect payment for <br />