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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:32:23 PM
Creation date
4/11/2008 3:39:20 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Addendum to Comments on "Weather Modification in Arizona, 1971" by Herbert B. Osborn
Prepared By
Wallace E. Howell
Date
1/1/1971
State
AZ
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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<br />'" .. <br /> <br />"Examination of the published records indicates that the <br />experimenters may have been dealt an unfortunate series <br />of days in the random assignment of the seed and no-seed <br />cases. * * * It appears from this evidence that the results <br />reported earlier concerning the decrease in rain on the <br />seeded days occurred because the high rainfall days happened <br />to be assigned to the non-seeded days." <br /> <br />It is worth noting that Neyman, et aI, (1967), treated the Whitetop <br />case in relation to the hypothesis that there are certain meteoro- <br />logical conditions, A, under which "seeding" increases rain and <br />other different conditions, B, under which "seeding" decreases rain, <br />treating the Swiss Grossversuch III as exemplary of the former ~lLOd <br />Whitetop of the latter. "Seeding" is put in quotes because these <br />workers took no account of the effects of differences in seeding <br />treatments exemplified by the different projects that they analyzed <br />and because in a subsequent publication (Neyman, et aI, 1969), the <br />conclusions reached: <br /> <br />"Two excellently performed, large cloud-seeding experiments, <br />Grossversuch III and Whitetop, indicate strongly not only <br />that cloud seeding ,can affect rain, but also that its effect <br />can spread over very large areas, by increasing rain (as <br />in Grossversuch III or by decreasing it as in Whitetop). <br />The conditions in which increases or decreases due to seeding <br />occur are largely unknown, which makes it questionable whether <br />weather modification technology exists as such." <br /> <br />lump many recognizably distinct cloud seeding treatments into a <br />single undifferentiated "weather modification technology." It is <br />almost as if one observed one person broiling a steak and another <br />person incinerating garbage, and concluded that it is questionable <br />if a technology existed for the use of fire in the treatment of food- <br />stuffs . <br /> <br />Two of the subsequent studies (Flueck, 1971; Lovasich, et aI, 1971a) <br />did indicate strongly that there were meteorological differences <br />between Whitetop occurrences of precipitation increase and precipita- <br />tion decrease associated with the seeding, thus tending to confirm <br />Neyman's, et aI, (1967) hypothesis of A and B meteorological condi- <br />tions. Thus while the latest judgment is that although no statis- <br />tically significant overall precipitation decrease from Whitetop can <br />be proved, a differentiation can be made between conditions favorable <br />to, and those unfavorable to, precipitation increase from the particu- <br />lar seeding treatment used. The conditions for decrease (respective <br />increase) may be defined as the intersection between a particular <br />subset of meteorological conditions (those favorable for increase) <br />and a particular subset of seeding treatments. The set of conditions <br />thus defined for decrease does not, however, have anything in conwon <br />with ARIDROP. <br /> <br />3 <br />
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