Erie_WCPlan_95%PR

• Water Efficiency Grant Type: Water Conservation Planning Grant
• Applicant: Town of Erie
• Project Name: Town of Erie Water Conservation Plan
• Title: 95% Progress Report
• Date: 5/16/2007
• County: Weld
• Water Efficiency - Doc Type: Interim Reports

CDM

Section 3
Water Use and Forecasted Demands

3.2 Forecasting Method

The per capita water use estimates shown in Figure 3-3 were used to estimate future
water demands. Projected demands were estimated by multiplying the total per
capita water usage (potable, raw, and reclaimed water use) of 276 gpcd for 2002 by
the population projections presented in Section 2.1.22.

The 2002 per capita water usage was used as a "baseline" for these projections because
it incorporates a certain level of conservation (Erie implemented mandatory water
restrictions in 2002), but occurs prior to the significant decrease in per capita water
usage. As discussed in Section 3.1, per capita water usage will likely continue to
increase (drought shadow effect) and could return to 2002 levels. Conservation and
use of reclaimed water may be able to maintain per capita demands below 2002 levels.
These projected demands will serve as the baseline when evaluating future
conservation water savings.3

3.3 Demand Forecast

Table 3-1 shows projected water demands from 2007 to 2025. Demands are
anticipated to increase to 10,420 AFY in 2025. These demands include potable water,
raw water (lease and ditch water), and reclaimed water use.

Table 3.1 Total Projected Demands (includes Potable, Reclaimed Water, and Raw Water)

I Projected Demands I Projected Demands
Year (AFY) Year (AFY)
2007 4,860 2017 7,610
2008 5,150 2018 7,920
2009 5,460 2019 8,230
2010 5,780 2020 8,560
2011 6,020 2021 8,910
2012 6,260 2022 9,260
2013 6,510 2023 9,630
2014 6,770 2024 10,020
2015 7,040 2025 10,420
2016 7,320

2 The 2002 per capita water use estimate of 276 gpcd includes use of raw/lease water,
reclaimed water, as well as billed and unbilled potable water. Billed potable per capita water
use in 2002 is significantly less with an estimated per capita water usage of 114 gpcd
(assuming 15 percent of total potable water usage consists of unbilled water).
3 The projected demands presented in this section are exclusively for the purposes of
comparing the effectiveness of conservation measures and programs. These demands differ
from the projected demands presented in Erie's Water and Wastewater Master Plan which
were developed for infrastructure planning purposes.

DRAFT

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