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<br />Modeling the 602a Storage Requirement <br /> <br />In our current modeling, for each month January through September, equalization releases are <br />made from Powell when the following conditions are satisfied. Equalization releases are not made <br />October through December. <br /> <br />1. The Upper Basin storage is greater than the 602a storage. <br /> <br />2. The forecasted EOWY (end ofthe water year) storage at Powell is greater than the <br />forecasted EOWY storage at Mead. <br /> <br />3. Through 2016, Powell's forecasted EOWY storage is greater than 14.85 MAF per the <br />ISG interim guideline. <br /> <br />To compute the Upper Basin storage for each month January through September, we first forecast <br />the EOWY storage at Powell. To that we add the previous month's storage of the Upper Basin <br />reservoirs Flaming Gorge, Navajo and Blue Mesa. Each month, the Upper Basin storage is <br />compared to the 602a storage, computed annually by the algorithm described below. <br /> <br />602a Algorithm <br /> <br />[( ) ( UB Short%) ] <br />602aStorage= UB _Dep+UB _Evap * 1- -100 +MOR-cplnflow *cpLength+ <br />mppStorage <br /> <br />602(a) Stora2e Parameters Definition Current Value <br />UB _Dep The average over the next Depends on start year <br /> "cpLength" years of the Upper <br /> Basin scheduled depletions <br />UB _ Evap The average annual 560 KAF <br /> evaporation loss in the Upper <br /> Basin. <br />VB Short%) A specified shortage 0% <br /> percentage applied to Upper <br /> Basin depletions during the .. <br /> critical period, currently set to' <br /> zero. <br />MOR Powell's minimum objective 8.23 MAF <br /> release to the Lower Basin. <br />cpLength The length of the critical 12 years <br /> period, 1953 - 1964. <br />cplnjlow The average natural inflow at 12.18 MAF <br /> Lees Ferry during the critical <br /> period, 1953-1964. <br />mppStorage The amount of minimum 5.179 MAF <br /> power pool to be preserved in <br /> the Upper Basin reservoirs <br /> (Flaming Gorge, Navajo, Blue <br /> <br />9-19-05 <br /> <br />DRAFT <br /> <br />Reclamation <br /> <br />