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WMOD00274 (2)
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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:32:14 PM
Creation date
4/2/2008 2:46:39 PM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Hydro-Climate Index Study - Final Report
Prepared By
HDR Engineering
Date
2/14/2008
County
Statewide
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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The second reason for the lack of data is that nine of these years, the 5000 cfs mark was <br />either not made or was not exceeded for a sufficient period of time to qualify as making <br />the 5000 cfs mark (i.e. the daily average hit 5000 cfs for one day then retreated). <br />A slightly different look at this variable showed little additional information in <br />that the date of ‘peak’ flow (highest average daily cfs) was poorly correlated with most <br />HCI variables. The one slight exception to this was the NAO in a very latent mode <br />(March to May) average or as the spring is proceeding along. The only item to note is <br />th <br />that the date of ‘peak’ flow is typically at or earlier than the average date (June 8) on all <br />but one of the years that the NAO is greater than 0.25 with half of those years having a <br />st <br />peak flow within a day or two of June 1. However, this is only useful knowledge if a <br />skillful forecast of the NAO is available for that year. <br />Summary: <br />Although ENSO’s well noted impacts have been oft discussed and researched it <br />becomes apparent that influences of measured tangible variables in the Atlantic have a <br />definitive non-random influence in some of the State of Colorado’s river basins. Some <br />preliminary research has been performed on the connection between ENSO and the AMO <br />on larger time scales and longer periods of stream flow. The work performed in this <br />study confirms this notion on one and two-year time scales. Given the longer-time scales <br />of indices like the AMO and PDO the results will hopefully enlighten the reader into the <br />apparent longer time scales of large oscillations and their long-term impacts. <br />In a decade where the multi-year stream flow values have generally been lacking <br />behind the long-term averages (1999-2007) preceded by seemingly many bountiful years <br />in the 1990’s one must wonder if these variables are the source of our stream flow <br />variability. The cause and effect of say the AMO, on precipitation and subsequent stream <br />flow has yet to be definitively quantified. However, one may speculate on factors such as <br />altered preferred storm tracks through the Western US as systems move in from the <br />Pacific Ocean or is there a change in the moisture (water vapor) content in the <br />atmosphere that alters the amount of moisture to precipitate out of the clouds? <br />Regardless of the mechanisms at work in the variability of the hydrologic cycle, <br />the recent light shed on some Colorado’s basins and their importance on the future of <br />Colorado’s surface water both intra and inter-state might be pursued at further length. <br />Just a decade or so ago, the scientific community was beginning to get their hands around <br />the ENSO phenomenon. Will research on other HCI variables be as important? Some of <br />the data in this report suggests that might be possible in the near future. <br />41 <br />
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