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WMOD00274 (2)
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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:32:14 PM
Creation date
4/2/2008 2:46:39 PM
Metadata
Fields
Template:
Weather Modification
Title
Hydro-Climate Index Study - Final Report
Prepared By
HDR Engineering
Date
2/14/2008
County
Statewide
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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in that it is east of the Continental Divide however, because of the large mountain barriers <br />to the east of the Divide (the Sangre de Cristo mountains) the climatology of the basin is <br />much like that of the West Slope Basins. <br />This interest has translated into several studies that related one or more hydro- <br />climate indices to stream flow and drought occurrence. Lilies (2002) documented a <br />strong relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and New Mexico <br />precipitation. Negative PDO years are associated with below normal precipitation years <br />and positive PDO years are associated with above normal precipitation years. <br />He also noted that these influences were much stronger in the southern third of the <br />state than in the northern third. Since the PDO is entering a predominantly negative PDO <br />cycle for the next 20-30 years, he concluded that New Mexico should receive 75 percent <br />of wet cycle year annual precipitation into the 2020’s. In essence he predicted a <br />continuing drought condition for most of New Mexico’s river systems including the Rio <br />Grande system. <br />Leeet al (2003) noted a strong ENSO influence on both the accumulation and <br />melting of snow pack in the Upper Rio Grande basin. The strongest precipitation <br />connection occurred between much lower than average March precipitation during La <br />Nina years preceded by above normal temperatures from September to March. While he <br />notes additional correlations between El Nino and wet summers and La Nina and dry <br />summers his results are less strongly supported by the observations. <br />Given the availability of precipitation data there were three divisions that were examined <br />Districts 26 (Saguache Creek), 20 (Rio Grande main branch) and 35 (Sangre de <br />Cristo/Ute Creeks). These Divisions are geographically diverse with respect to the basin <br />with the western, northern and eastern parts of the basin represented. <br />The key ‘inflow’ areas for storm systems to positively impact the basin with <br />precipitation are quite varied given the roughly ‘semi-circular’ nature of the basin, with <br />the San Luis Valley being the center of the basin. In essence the passage of general <br />storms that create long periods of orographic upslope winds from the south west to <br />northeast can produce significant snowfalls. Monsoon moisture surges from the south can <br />have similar impacts by producing multiple days of thunderstorm rainfall during the <br />summer. Figure 3 shows the topography of the basin. <br />8 <br />
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