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<br />and changing agronomic conditions. Based on previously presented population and land use
<br />projections, an estimated 62,400 currently cultivated acres will be developed for M&I and other
<br />non-agriculture uses by the year 2045. Table IILD.l-l delineates historical water use per acre for
<br />agriculture and for M&I and Feedlots.
<br />
<br />Table IILD.l-l Historical Water Use Per Acre
<br />
<br />Year Total Water Net Agriculture Total Water Total Land M&I and
<br /> Use for Agriculture Water Use Use for M&l, Use for M&I Other Non-
<br /> Agriculture Land Use Per Acre Misc. and and Non- Agriculture
<br /> (Acre-feet) (Acre-Feet) (Acre-Feet) Feedlots Agriculture Water Use
<br /> I 2 Per Acrl
<br /> (Acre-Ft) (Acres)
<br />1987 2,322,174 453,059 5.1 63,946 29,670 2.2
<br />1988 2,493,452 458,275 5.4 62,253 29,927 2.1
<br />1989 2,577,082 460,054 5.6 65,890 29,884 2.2
<br />1990 2,610,625 463,030 5.6 70,287 30,592 2.3
<br />1991 2,448,721 467,791 5.2 71,439 33,689 2.1
<br />1992 2,106,398 456,948 4.6 72,372 35,960 2.0
<br />1993 2,330,539 458,950 5.1 73,151 36,888 2.0
<br />1994 2,578,371 456,040 5.7 77,123 39,437 2.0
<br />Average 2,433,420 459,268 5.3 69,558 33,256 2.1
<br />
<br />Source: Table III.C.3-1 Total M&I, Feedlots, and MIscellaneous Water Use
<br />2 Source: Table IILA.2-1 Total M&I and Other Non-Agriculture Land Use
<br />3 Source: Total Water Use for M&I and Feedlots Divided by Total Land Use for M&I and Feedlots
<br />
<br />The Arizona Department of Water Resources predicts that Arizona will begin to use its full 2.8
<br />million acre-foot Colorado River entitlement in the year 2029. In 2030 and beyond, California
<br />may have to live within its 4.4 million acre-foot Colorado River entitlement. California's
<br />agricultural entities could be limited to 3.85 million acre-feet of Colorado River water.
<br />Therefore, IID should protect an available water supply sufficient to meet requirements in a
<br />"high" rather than "average" water use year. As shown in Table IILD.l-l, the average water use
<br />per acre averaged 5.3 AF/acre and ranged from 4.6 to 5.7 AF/acre during the 1987-1994 period.
<br />A statistical 90 percent confidence interval (C.L) for these years is 5.0 to 5.6 AF/ acre (5.3 +/- 0.3
<br />AF/acre). For purposes ofthis study, a "high" water use year is therefore defined as 5.6 AF/acre.
<br />The total projected agricultural water requirements in 2045 are presented in Table IILD.I-2.
<br />Projected agricultural water requirements are based on the assumption that by 2045, due to
<br />urbanization of lands in both the Imperial Valley and the Central Valley, at least 427,600 ~
<br />
<br />Draft: Subject To Revision 12/21/95
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