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<br />- 5 - <br /> <br />National Weather Service Short Term Forecast <br />. Bob Glancy showed short term forecasts with the best now in the foothills. <br />. CPC indicating a better chance of dry conditions and best chance of above normal precipitation in the <br />Pacific North West and cooler than average for eastern 1/3 of the country. <br />. Treste Huse showed AHPS data (Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services) that can be found at <br />http://www.weather.gov/ahpsl. These graphs plot flood stage and exceedance probabilities. A weekly <br />histogram plots the chance or range of outcomes for flooding potential. These are calculated by 54 <br />simulations and the local climate. <br />. Flood risk assessment has above average flood risk.for Colorado. <br />. The NWS also explained the difference between watches and warnings. As we look at a threat a watch is <br />issued, and we are not sure where it is going to be. A warning is issued when occurrence is eminent. <br />Flood warnings looking at gages and rises on the river and rainfall and radar estimates. <br /> <br />NOAA Lon2 Ran2e Forecasts <br />. Klaus Wolter's executive summary small chance things could change continued weakened la Nina, next <br />two weeks and models are not too hopeful, march was terrible for snowpack and this won't be those <br />years. <br />. A moderate-to-strong La Nina has been in place since August 2007 and is expected to continue for at <br />least another three months, possibly right through the summer. The last three months have brought <br />above-normal moisture to Colorado's mountains, in excess of La Nina-based expectations. <br />. The next two weeks do not look too promising for moisture, but so have been many previous two-week <br />periods that ended up wet in the mountains. My experimental <br />forecast guidance for spring is surprisingly optimistic for <br />eastern Colorado, while the rest of our state has not tilt one <br />way or the other. <br />. Based on monthly composites, the lack of a negative tilt <br />despite a pervasive tendency for dry weather during La <br />Nina springs is anchored by the month of April. Essentially <br />Aprils can be wet or dry with La Nina, the 1999 April being <br />the last of example of a very wet La Nina April. If we go thru <br />April and do not get much moisture, the odds for a dry spring <br />go up dramatically. <br />. Bottomline: After a surprisingly wet winter season, March has <br />still continued wet in the mountains, while the rest of the <br />state has shown the more typical La Nina-related dryness, last <br />night's storm notwithstanding. Once we are through April, the <br />remainder of spring into the summer is more likely to end up -5% -1.% <br />drier than normal rather than wetter than normal, unless we get a surprise onset of <br /> <br />EXPERIMENTAL PSD PRECIPITATION FORECAST GUIDANCE <br />APR. JUN 2008 (issued March 13,2008) <br /> <br /> <br />-5% <br /> <br />-5% <br /> <br />an EI Nino. <br /> <br />Division of Wildlife <br />DOW is feeding over 9,000 deer and 3,000 elk in the Gunnison Basin to keep the doe mortality rates down. <br /> <br />u.S. Armv Corps of En2ineers <br />. The Albuquerque District has set up meetings with the DEM and CWCB and state and county emergency <br />managers in Rio Grande and Arkansas basins. The Sacramento District will meet with Durango. The <br />Corps has recently completed levee inspections in Grand Junction. <br /> <br />Flood Protection. Water Project Planning and Finance. Stream and Lake Protection <br />Water Supply Protection. Conservation Planning <br />