WMOD00290 ‎(2)‎

• Project Name: The Medicine Bow Ecology Project
• Title: The Potential Sensitivity of Various Ecosystem Components to Winter Precipitation Management in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming
• Prepared For: Bureau of Reclaimation
• Date: 2/28/1975
• State: WY
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

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praqllldlic reason',. Wilh the develoPlllent of cornputer.simulatlon tech-
n i que~ a new too I hd5 been ga i ned for I e..lrn intI about ecosys Lems, one
that has the potential of allowing a total system analysis of natural
and man-dominated ecosystems.
The short duration and funding level of the. Medicine Bow Ecology
Project have not permitted a total system analysis f~r the Medicine
Bow ecosystem. We have used whatever tools seemed appropriate, however,
to gain an .understanding sufficient to predict the ecological effect,
if any, of winter cloud seeding with silver iodide on certain components
and processes (sub-systems) in the Med:icine Bow ~'ouhtains. This
research approach involved the synthesis of data that we and others
have collected on various ecological relationships'.in the Medicine
Bow Mountains, e.g. the relationship bl~tween na~llralsnow depth and
elk migration or plant distribution. Iln some cas'es this appro<~ch
has led to;he identification of limiting factors. If it can be con-
fidently predicted that cloud seeding ~"ill modify a limiting hctor,
then we can confidently predlct !hat the dlstribut~qn~r.abundance of

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the organism to which the factoris',:,lli:nlti,ng wi n be modified. To

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predi ct the degree of mod i f i cat ion quartt I tatlve ly./Is, rare ly po~;s i b Ie,
however, without a total system analysiis.
Another value of'syste~sanaly~ls is that It forces attention to

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the unknown. In this reportwe ~Ist the additional questions that
remain unanswered and which seem partic:ularly gerinal'ie to evalu.:Itlng the
ecolog I ca I impact of wi nter prec i pi tat ii on manag~rnent.

THE MED I CINE BOW MOUNTA I NS: A BASEL! NE: OESeR I PT I ON

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The ecological changes that may occur following winter clc)ud
seeding are likely to be slow and subtlle, especially since thel"e is
already considerable yearly fluctuation In" snowfal 1 and there ~"Ill
probably be no seeding during the heavy snowfall years. It sel~ms
reasonabl.~ to expect that any changes that do occur wi 11 be tht~ result
of 1) less variability in snowfall from year to year, a potentially
important ecosystem characteristic; 2) an increase in the mean annual

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