WMOD00306

• Project Name: Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project
• Title: Sierra Cooperative Pilot Project - Operations Plan - 1986-1987
• Date: 10/1/1986
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

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In order to 'know which generators to ignite for targeting, the SCPP GUIDE
model will be run using the latest available wind information to determine
that the plume will directionally target the area for a substantial distance
along its trajectory. No consideration will be given for whether or not
seeding effects will impact the area for this real-time run. Only in post-
ana lys is wi 11 it be determi ned as to the anti ci pated effectiveness of the
seeding within the target area.

The basic assumption made here is that the conditions shown in Table 2-1 are
expected to last for eight hours or more and that seeding during any portion
of a storm will not produce negative effects. To date, there is no evidence
that negative effects occur when seeding takes place in non-optimum seeding
conditions.

Based upon existing experimental unit definitions for the fixed target experi-
ment, the procedures must consider the identification and short-term predict-
ability of the appropriate set of conditions constituting a fixed target
experimental unit. Table 2-2 summarizes the checks, the data acquisition
systems involved, and criteria to be satisfied for a fixed target experiment
to be initiated.

In order to prepare equipment and personnel ahead of time, it is important to
be able to forecast suitable cloud conditions for the fixed target experiment.

Specific information has been learned over the past three seasons which has
been used to forecast these suitable conditions. This year will mark the
second year for conduct of a statistical forecast experiment+. Forecasts will

+ See Design of a Forecast and Verification Experiment, Oct. 1986, Bureau of
Reclamation. 6 pp.

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