WMOD00287

• Title: The National Weather Modification Plan
• Prepared For: CAO Subcommittee on Weather Modification
• Prepared By: The Working Group of the CAO Subcommittee on Weather Modification
• Date: 2/13/1981
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Report

II. POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF TNEATHER MODIFICATION

The net benefit of weather moditication is a function of the magnitude of
the change, when and where it occurs, and how well it can be forecast.
Beneficiaries and losers must be identified with regard to socioeconomic and
ecological impacts to evaluate its net national and regional value. Because
of scientific uncertainty about the effectiveness of weather modification
technologies, current estimates ~f the economic value of weather modification
can only be approximate. Proper assessment of the value of weather
modification also requires consideration of alternative measures: rarely is
the choice simply between weather modification and a passive acceptance of
whatever nature provides.

There are five major classes of potential weather modification
beneficiaries: (1) agriculture, (2) energy, (3) municipalities and
industries, (4) human safety and welfare, and (5) transportation. In
addition, weather modification can enhance recreational (especially water-
based) opportunities, fish and wildlife habitats, air and water quality, and
the general quali ty of life.

Agriculture may w~l have the most at stake in weather modification; it
is affected by rain, hail, wind, and temperature. A recent study estimated
that nearly $13 billion (19721dollars) is lost annually because of unfavorable
weather in the United States. Sixty-five percent of this loss is borne by
agriculture (table 11-1).

Quantitative estimates of the potential reduction in such losses by cloud
seeding are difficult to make and must be viewed with caution. Nevertheless,
the magnitude of weather-induced losses is so great that substantial economic
incentive a~ists for developing effective modification techniques.

Precipitation enhancement can be used to increase the amount of water
stored in reservoirs (surface or underground. manmade or natural). The water
is then available when and where it is needed. Assuming that a reliable
technology is developed. a basin-wide precipitation enhancement progr~ could,
for eKample. increase the flow in the Colorado River by 1.7 billion m .
Indeed, a comprehensive water resource study recently concluded: "Taking into
consideration availability. quantity. quality. and cost of augmentation
alternatives, weather modification appeazs to be the most promising source of
new water in the Western United States." Additional water would benefit not
only agriculture but also hydroelectric energy production, water quality. and
municipalities and industries.

IThompson, J., '"'Living With Climate Change: Phase II Symposium Report," Mitre
Corporation, Reston, VA.. pp. 65-76, 1977.

2U.S. Depart!llent of the Interior, "Critical Water Problems Facing the Ele'len
Western States." Bureau of Reclamation, Engineering and Research Center,
Den'ler, Colo., April 1975.

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