PROJ01952 ‎(2)‎

• Contract/PO #: C150131
• Contractor Name: Paonia, Town of
• Contract Type: Loan
• Water District: 0
• Loan Projects - Doc Type: Feasibility Study

Growth Scenario C used in the Draft 2000 Study assumed that unanticipated
events could dramatically increase the population of Paonia's water service area.
Events that could drive this dramatic growth would be analogous to the situation
that has occurred in Moab, Utah. The dramatic growth in and around l\IIoab in
recent years has been fueled mainly because the area has been recently
discovered as a "hot spot" for mountain biking and other outdoor activities. SBC
assumed an average annual growth rate under this scenario of 3 percent per
year.

At the time that the Draft 2000 Study was prepared, Growth Scenario B was
considered to be the most realistic for predicting future growth within Paonia water
service area. Growth Scenario A was considered to be a reasonable lower bound and

Growth Scenario C was considered to be a reasonable upper bound.

Existing Demands

Actual information from the 2000 Census indicates the estimated 1999
Census data used in the Draft 2000 Study significantly overestimated the existing
population of the of Paonia. This information is also verified by tap information
provided by the Town for this report. The 2000 Census data indicated that there
were only 1,497 people and 705 housing units within the Town resulting in
approximately 2.12 people per household. The 2000 Census did not specifically
break out the out-of-town population of Paonia's water service area. However, the
2000 Census data indicated that the population of Delta County was 27,834 people
and included 12,374 housing units, which results in a 2.25 people per household.
In 2002, there were about 358 residential out-of-town water taps in Paonia's
system, which is equivalent to a population of about 800 people. 1990 Census
data indicates that the 1990 population of Paonia and Delta County was 1,397 and
20,980 people, respectively. A comparison of the 1990 and 2000 census data
indicates that the respective populations of Paonia and Delta County have grown at
an average annual rate of 0.7 and 3.3 percent.

Information on the number of taps in the Town's service area was provided by
John Norris, the Town Manager, on May 17, 2002. This tap information is summarized
in Table 3 below. Records of taps sales from 1991 to May 2002 are summarized in

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