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Executive Summary (18 January 2008) <br />“Official” version athttp://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/SWcasts/ <br />: <br />• <br />A moderate+ La Niña has been in place since August 2007, and is expected to <br />continue for at least another three months, possibly right through the summer. <br />• <br />The last six weeks have brought above-normal moisture to Colorado’s <br />cold <br />mountains, in excess of La Ni ñ a-based expectations. One more storm is <br />expected early next week, with subsequent drying & moderation of <br />temperatures towards the end of the month. <br />• <br />My experimental forecast guidance for the late winter season (January-March <br />2008) continues to show a pervasive tendency for dry conditions,especially in <br />northern Colorado, and most of Arizona and New Mexico. For northern <br />Colorado, this pessimistic outlook is actually more severe than the more neutral <br />or even wet La Niña impacts that are more typical for such late winters. Current <br />moisture prospects for spring are surprisingly optimistic forsouthern Colorado, <br />but are at variance with typically lingering La Niña dryness. <br />• <br />Bottomline: After a wet start to our winter season, the remaining winter months <br />may still end up dry in much of the Interior Southwest. This dryness may reach <br />further north than during typical La Niña winters,including the north-central <br />mountains of Colorado. However, the recent moisture surplus may be sufficient <br />to avert an outright return to drought conditions. Given the current strength <br />and persistence of this La Niñaevent, the odds for moisture relief during <br />the spring do not look good, despite some early indications to the contrary. <br />