S5_11-15-04

• Basin: Statewide
• Title: SWSI Phase 1 Report - Section 5 Projected Water Use
• Date: 11/15/2004
• Author: CWCB
• SWSI - Doc Type: Final Report

Section 5
Projected Water Use
5.1.1.2 Population Projections
Future population projections were obtained from the
Colorado DOLA, Demography Section. This dataset
contains county population projections from 2000 to 2030
in annual increments. Populations for counties that lie
within two or more basins were allocated to the
respective basins based on estimates from known
population centers within each basin. A summary of
county and basin population projections is provided in
Appendix E.
From 2000 to 2030, Colorado's population is projected to
increase by about 2.8 million additional people - a
65 percent increase - to a 2030 population of over
7.1 million. Aggregated basin summaries of the data are
presented in Figure 5-1 and Table 5-2. The vast majority
of the state's population in 2030 will live in the South
Platte and Arkansas Basins.
YampaNVhite/Green
Colorado, 1~North Platte
Rio Grande
South Platte
Figure 5-1
Relative 2030 Populations in Each Basin
Table 5-2 Population Proiections bv Basin
On a basin level, West Slope growth rates are projected
to be the highest, with the Colorado Basin population
almost doubling and Gunnison River and Dolores/San
Juan/San Miguel Basins' populations increasing by 82
and 89 percent, respectively. However, the population
centers along the Front Range will lead the state in
increases in the number of residents, with an additional
1.9 million residents in the South Platte Basin and over
450,000 additional residents in the Arkansas Basin by
2030. Thus, growth in many parts of the state will be
dramatic with respect to both rates of growth and
increases in population. The North Platte Basin is
projected to have the lowest growth rate and the fewest
additional residents, showing a modest increase in
population over the 30-year planning period.
Looking at a county level, 12 of the state's 64 counties
are projected to more than double in population between
2000 and 2030. Park, Elbert, and Archuleta Counties are
projected to have the state's highest rates of population
growth with increases of 482 percent, 191 percent, and
170 percent, respectively. The rural eastern counties of
Cheyenne, Kiowa, and Baca are each expected to lose
between 15 percent and 18 percent of their population
over this 30-year period.
Ten counties are projected to have population increases
of more than 100,000 over the 2000 to 2030 period.
Front Range counties comprise 9 of those 10 counties.
Adams County will add the most population (increase of
343,000) and Weld, EI Paso, and Douglas Counties are
each projected to add more than 250,000 people over
this 30-year period. Twenty-one counties will each have
their populations increase by between 10,000 and
100,000, and 30 counties' populations will each increase
by less than 10,000 over this period.
Arkansas 835,100
Dolores/San Juan/San Miguel 90,900
Gunnison 88,600
North Platte 1,600
Rio Grande 46,400
TOTAL
Source: Colorado DOLA, Demography Section
J~~a
$~ole'ri~ice Wo~e' $upplY Initia~ive
293,000 457,900 55 1.5
492,600 244,600 99 2.3
171,600 80,700 89 2.1
161,500 72,900 82 2.0
2,000 400 25 0.7
62,700 16,300 35 1.0
911.600 1.926.000 65 1.7
65 1.7
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S:\REPORT\WORD PROCESSING\REPORT\SS 11-7-04.DOC ~J-.~