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Section 2 Statewide Demographic, Economic, and Social Setting Table 2-5 Colorado's Economic Forecast (percent chanqe unless otherwise Jobs 0.6 -1.9 -1.5 0.4 3.1 2.8 Manufacturing Jobs -4.9 -8.7 -6.0 -1.9 1.5 3.3 Personallncome 3.6 0.8 2.0 4.3 6.3 7.1 Real Personal Income -0.8 -1.2 1.2 4.3 5.5 5.5 -0.1 -0.3 4.5 4.7 2.4 1.7 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 59 28 9 16 18 29 Source: Colorado Economic Outlook, Center for Business & Economic Forecasting, Inc., June 1, 2004 (ht~://dola.colorado.gov/demog/Economy/Forecasts/CBEFOutlook.pd fl 2.2.1 Urban Economy Colorado's main urban economic areas are concentrated along the Front Range, stretching from Fort Collins in the northern portion of the state to the core region of the Denver Metropolitan area and then southward to Pueblo. In these urban areas, employment in the service industry, such as medical providers, other businesses, and professional services, are prevalent. As noted above, these industry sectors play a vital role in the growth of Colorado's economy. The manufacturing industry is also important to the statewide economy, comprising food products, printing and publishing, machinery, and electrical instruments. While the urban economy may not demand as much water as other sectors of the economy, such as agriculture, the urban economy is sustained by the availability of a secure water supply and the guarantee of water quality. The 2004 Outlook reports that: ^ The manufacturing sector has been in decline since the late 1990s, but is projected to experience a gradual recovery in the upcoming years. During the 1990s, the technological and telecommunications area became an important employer for Colorado's workforce. These industries have weakened in the last few years, but the technology industry is now showing signs of improvement and will add jobs to the workforce beginning at the end of 2004. ^ Retail sales are an important contributor to the urban economy. State retail sales have not been strong recently, decreasing the last 2 years, but economic forecasts indicate recovery of retail sales will occur in 2004 and 2005. 2.2.2 Agricultural Economy 2.2.2.1 Irrigated Farmland in Colorado Agriculture is the largest consumptive user of Colorado water, and is one of the state's most significant economic sectors, encompassing a large share of the land in the state. Table 2-6 is a summary of irrigated farmland trends in Colorado from 1987 to 1997. The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (1997) reports that irrigated farmland in Colorado rose from 3,013,773 acres in 1987 to 3,430,129 acres in 1997. Note that these estimates differ from the estimates of irrigated acreage reported in Section 5 due to the use of different sources and methods. The number of farms with irrigation increased from 14,913 in 1987 to 15,470 in 1997, while the average irrigated land per farm increased from 202 acres per farm to 222 acres per farm over the same period. This increase in irrigated land is largely attributable to the increase in the numbers of farms with less than 50 irrigated acres (rising from 5,753 farms in 1987 to 6,685 farms in 1997) and those with more than 500 irrigated acres (rising from 1,484 farms in 1987 to 1,820 farms in 1997). Table 2-6 Trends in Irrigated Farmland in Colorado: 1987 to 1997 Total Irrigated Farmland (acres) 3,013,773 3,430,129 Total Farms with Irrigated Land (# of 14,913 15,470 farms) Farms with less than 50 Irrigated Acres 5,753 6,685 Farms with 50 to 500 Irrigated Acres 7,676 6,965 Farms with more than 500 Irrigated 1,484 1,820 Acres Average Irrigated Land per Farm 202 222 Source: U.S. NationaVAgricultural Statistics Service (www.nass. usda.gov/census97Nolume1 /co-6/co1 _08.pd fl ~~ ~~ Statew~itle Water Supply Inii'iative Z-6 S:\REPORT\WORD PROCESSING\REPORT\S2 11-10.04.DOC