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<br />CONI <br /> <br />Methodologies for Estimating and Projecting Urban (Municipal & Industrial) and <br />Agricultural Demands and Environmental and Recreational Flow Requirements <br />November 2003 <br /> <br />estimation of county per capita water use assumes that all residences, businesses, and <br />industries throughout the county (including the self-supplied users) use water at the <br />same rate as the municipally-supplied residences, businesses, and industries, given <br />similar demographic and climatic characteristics. <br /> <br />If future values of county characteristics are expected to change over time (e.g., the <br />proportion of single-family to total housing, or average persons per household), then <br />the estimated per capita water use rate for that county may change over time. The <br />county per capita water use will be estimated for each county for 2000 and 2030 based <br />on projected values of the county characteristics. The characteristics may be changed <br />to reflect alternative growth scenarios. <br /> <br />The estimated future per capita water use rates of each county will be multiplied by <br />the projected population of each county to estimate the urban water demand (i.e., the <br />residential, commercial, and industrial water use) of each county. The population <br />projections and future county characteristics will be obtained from the Colorado <br />Department of Local Affairs (DOLA), Demography Section. A sample of the <br />population projections from DOLA are shown in Table 1. <br /> <br /> <br />. Median household income <br />. Average persons per household <br />. Ratio of single-family to total housing <br />. Ratio of industrial employment to total <br />. Ratio of retail employment to total <br />. Ratio of services employment to total <br /> <br />other: <br /> <br />. Mean maximum <br />temperature <br />. Total annual <br />preci pitation <br /> <br />The use of the DOLA population projections will form the baseline water demand <br />forecast for M&I demands in conjunction with the estimated per capita water use rate <br />for each county. Since this estimate represents the total or gross per capita water use <br />and there is a significant return flow component, an estimate of municipal and <br />industrial consumptive use will also be included based on existing research. <br /> <br />4 <br /> <br />S:\TASK 8 & 9 SUPPLY AND DEMAND\SWSI DEMAND METHODOLOGY 11-26-03.DOC <br />