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<br />CONI <br /> <br />Methodologies for Estimating and Projecting Urban (Municipal & Industrial) and <br />Agricultural Demands and Environmental and Recreational Flow Requirements <br />November 2003 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />1 Weather: <br /> <br />. Mean maximum <br />temperature <br />. Total annual <br />preci pitation <br /> <br />. Median household income <br />. Average persons per household <br />. Ratio of single-family to total housing <br />. Ratio of industrial employment to total <br />. Ratio of retail employment to total <br />. Ratio of services employment to total <br /> <br />To the extent that data are available from US Census, Colorado Department of Local <br />Affairs and others, municipal level characteristics will be identified for each of the <br />providers in the sample database. Depending upon the availability of data, <br />characteristics may include: <br /> <br />. Ratio of single-family housing to total households <br />. Median household income <br />. Average persons per household <br />. Ratio of industrial employment to total employment <br />. Ratio of retail employment to total employment <br />. Ratio of services employment to total employment <br />. Ratio of agricultural employment to total employment <br />. Annual mean daily maximum temperature <br />. Annual total precipitation <br />. Urban/rural designation of county located within <br /> <br />These characteristics will allow the identification of various factors, such as tourism or <br />second homes, which may impact per capita water use. Regression analysis will be <br />used to examine relationships between the municipal characteristics and municipal <br />per capita water use. These relationships are quantified in coefficients, or elasticities, <br />which indicate the percent change in per capita water use with a given change in the <br />characteristic. That is, regression analysis assumes that the variation in per capita <br />water use can be partially explained by the variation in associated characteristics. The <br />analysis should result in a model of per capita water use. <br /> <br />County-level values for the characteristics will be input into the model of per capita <br />water use. Thus, per capita water use will be estimated for each county. This <br /> <br />3 <br /> <br />S:\TASK 8 & 9 SUPPLY AND DEMAND\SWSI DEMAND METHODOLOGY 11-26-03.DOC <br />