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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:32:29 PM
Creation date
1/8/2008 11:54:38 AM
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Template:
Weather Modification
Sponsor Name
USBR Technical Serivce Center, River Systems & Meteorology Group
Project Name
Snow Accumulation Algorithm for the WSR-88D Radar, Version 1
Title
Snow Accumulation Algorithm for the WSR-88D Radar, Version 1
Prepared For
USBR
Prepared By
Arlin B. Super and Edmond W. Holroyd
Date
6/1/1996
State
CO
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Scientific Study
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<br />However, for a linear relationship with a reasonably high R value, an approximately equal <br />number of points would be expected on either side of the regression line for any given range <br />of snowfall accumulations. But the large majority of radar-estimated data points lie below <br />the regression lines for figures 3 through 7 for light snowfalls (radar tends to overestimate). <br />The converse is true for the higher snowfalls where the radar tends to underestimate. One <br />possible explanation for the radar underestimating higher snowfall amounts and <br />overestimating lower amounts is related to spatial averaging. The radar's minimum spatial <br />unit is the range bin, 10 by 1 kIn in size. Using Cleveland's gage No. 1 as an example, the <br />single range bin directly over the gage at a 36-km range has an area of 6.3 x 105 m2. But <br />arrays of range bins approximating 3 by 3 kIn of area were used in these analyses. For the <br />same gage, a 50 by 3-kIn array (15 bins) was used, which has a total area of 9.4 x 106 m2. In <br />contrast, the area of an 8-inch-diameter Belfort gage orifice is 0.03 m2, more than 7 orders <br />of magnitude smaller than the single range bin in this example. <br /> <br />Clearly, the Belfort gage measures point values of snowfall accumulations which have highly <br />skewed temporal distributions. For example, the frequency distribution for Cleveland gage <br />No.1 hourly totals ranged from 49 h (34 percent) with 0.005 inch, the minimum detectable <br />amount, to 1 h with the a maximum observed total of 0.100 inch. The number of hours with <br />amounts between 0.005 and 0.050 inch was 130 (91 percent). Only 13 hours (9 percent) had <br />amounts between 0.055 and 0.100 inch. But the real question is the degree to which spatial <br />gradients in the snowfall pattern cause these observed skewed temporal distributions. It is <br />well known that convective rainfall has strong spatial gradients, but snowfall patterns would <br />be expected to be much more homogeneous. But dense snow gaging networks are rare, so not <br />much can be said about snow gradients at resolutions smaller than the radar range bin. <br /> <br />A test was performed with the existing data by comparing snowfall estimates from the single <br />range bins that make up the averaging array with the array's estimate. This test was done <br />for the array of 15 range bins over Cleveland's gage No.1, used for the radar-estimated <br />hourly amounts of figure 3. <br /> <br />For reference, table 8 shows that the R value between the hourly array estimates and gage <br />No.1 observations was 0.73, the average radar-estimated snowfall amount was 0.0196 inch, <br />and the standard error of estimate ~as 0.0136 inch. These values can be compared with the <br />ranges resulting from performing similar calculations with each of the 15 range bins in the <br />array which follow: R-values ranged between 0.69 and 0.73, average radar-estimated <br />snowfall amounts ranged between 0.0190 and 0.0212 inch, and standard errors of estimate <br />ranged between 0.0135 and 0.0144 inch. Even within these limited ranges, the larger R <br />values and smaller standard errors of estimate tended to be located near the array center. <br />These comparisons suggest limited spatial variation over the area of the array. However, <br />although any of the bins within the array would provide reasonable estimates of snowfall, <br />those nearest the array center had the highest association with gage No.1 observations. <br /> <br />A plot was prepared (not shown) similar to figure 3 but using the Ze observations from the, <br />single range bin directly over gage No.1; that is, the bin in the center of the array. The plot <br />appeared almost identical to figure 3, which might be expected with an R value of 0.99 <br />between this range bin's hourly amounts and the array amounts. (The R values between the <br />array hourly estimates and those from single bins ranged between 0.96 and 0.99). <br /> <br />The above discussion suggests that averaging over an array of range bins may be <br />unnecessary, presuming the data from and over Cleveland's gage No.1 are representative. <br /> <br />31 <br />
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