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<br />ii. Implement Scenarios in CDSS M odels U sing Hydrology <br />D eveloped in Phase s I . <br /> <br />4 Perform Simulations of Scena rios of Future Water Use . Provide inputs <br />and output data sets for download on public web site. <br /> <br />5 Evaluate Impact of Alternate Demand Scenarios of Future Use in <br />Colorado River Basin, within Colorado, on Reliability, Risk and Water <br />Supply Planning <br /> <br />6 Summarize Water A vailability Results – Draft and Final Report s <br /> <br />7 Phase II Result Workshop <br /> <br />It is understood that Phase I of this study will be conducted in parallel to other studies <br />being currently performed such as the 1) water needs assessments being performed by t he <br />basin roundtables, 2) the Consumptive Water Needs Group, and 3) the N on - Consumptive <br />Water Needs Group. It is expected that the results of the Phase 1 W ater Availability <br />S tudy will be used in conjunction with results from the needs assessment s in the <br />ad ditional formulation and evaluation of water demand alternatives for Phase II . <br /> <br />PHASE I GOALS AND ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE <br /> <br />Based on IBCC input, the Phase I study goa ls are to provide answers to the following <br />questions: <br /> <br />1. What is a reasonable base of existi ng uses (by amount and location) to impose <br />in the Colorado River Water Availability Study? <br /> <br />2. How does historical hydrology in the last 70 - 90 years compare to a longer <br />hydrologic trace developed based on tree rings analysis? <br /> <br />3. What is a reasonable projection fo r hydrology as affected by climate change? <br /> <br />4. Based on evaluations of previous investigations of Colorado River Compact <br />entitlements and considering current information, how much water would <br />Colorado be entitled to under the Compacts? <br /> <br />Answers to the above q uestions set the stage for further questions to be answered in <br />Phase II including the primary question s about how much Colorado River water is <br />available for future uses and what is the variability, probability and risk in the estimated <br />water availability. The Colorado Water Conservation Board is charged with the <br />evaluation of the water availability in the Colorado River, working in full consultation <br />and active involvement of the basin roundtables. This scope anticipates a study <br />management team of CWCB sta ff (and special consultants) and that most of the technical <br />study activities would be performed by a consultant and assisted by CWCB staff. <br /> <br />PROPOSED GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR S TUDY <br /> <br /> <br />1. It is recognized that the Phase I tasks for model development and refinement <br />will establish some key elements of existing water use and future scenarios of <br />hydrology for the Colorado River Basin within Colorado. These will be built <br />upon in Phase II to answer key water availability questions. <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope 5 October 1 9 , 2007 <br />