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Correlation s of flows betw een subbasins in a given year are to be <br />preserved. <br /> <br />c. Generate at least one hundred (50 to 100 year) traces of alternative <br />hydrology on a monthly time step. Based on existing CDSS StateMod <br />relationships between flow sectors, disaggregate the hydrologic trace s into <br />the CDSS flow sectors. <br /> <br />d. Alternate Historical Hydrology Model Simulations /Testing – Test the <br />hydrologic traces in the CDSS model for proper and reaso nable operation. <br /> <br />e. Develop a summary spreadsheet of the results of the alternate historical <br />hydrology fo r comparison with the historical hydrology. Characterize <br />statistics for alternate historical hydrology for comparison with similar <br />statistics for historical hydrologic trace. <br /> <br />f. Prepare a memorandum of the describing the methods, analysis and results <br />related to the development of alternate historical hydrology. <br /> <br />Deliverable <br />: Written memorandum on alternative hydrology review and basis for <br />selection of a method , manner of generating alternative hydrology traces and <br />disaggregation of those traces into CDSS flow sectors , comparison of alternate <br />historical hydrology with historical hydrology. <br /> <br /> Alternate Hydrology of Climate Change & Forest Change <br />7. - the following <br />activities related to Climate Change are to be coordinated with Veva McCaig, <br />CWCB staff coordinating Cl imate Change activities . At this time there are a <br />number of approaches to climate projections, associated scaling and translation to <br />hydrology. To ensure the greatest potential for widespread acceptance and <br />usability of results it is essential that gener ally agreed upon and peer reviewed <br />models, processes and results be available prior to completing the tasks below. <br /> <br />a. Evaluate/Select Translation Techniques – Review different approaches <br />(process - oriented models or statistical models) for translating climate <br />projections into streamflow projections. Due to the difficulty of knowing <br />which method may provide the necessary precision, accuracy and <br />scientifically defensible results, several methods may be selected for use <br />in the analysis. <br /> <br />b. Identify/Select Scaling Me thods – It is believed that the climate change <br />information most readily available would include generalized data for <br />areas about the size of one - quarter of Colorado. Review is to be <br />performed of methods to re - scale climate projections to the scale of rive r <br />basins. One or more methods of be availab le on a grid system <br /> <br />c. Review the range of Climate Change Projections and identify a median <br />range for study. There are dozens or more of climate change projections . <br />The consultant would review the simulation tech niques and assumption <br />bases of these projections and identify projections that are believed to be <br />most appropriate for the Colorado River Basin within Colorado. The <br />consultant prepare a summary of the basis for selection of the median <br />range for study incl uding pros, cons, limitations and any potential bias. <br />Colorado River Water Availability Study Scope 11 October 1 9 , 2007 <br />