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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:31:54 PM
Creation date
10/22/2007 11:47:37 AM
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Weather Modification
Title
The Southern Plains Experiment in Cloud Seeding of Thunderstorms for Rainfall Augmentation Phase I (SPECTRA 1)
Prepared For
Texas Department of Licensing and Regulation
Prepared By
Duncan Axisa, Seeding Operations and Atmospheric Research
Date
3/1/2006
State
TX
Weather Modification - Doc Type
Report
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i <br />Preface <br />Operational cloud seeding for precipitation enhancement continues worldwide even though scientific <br />proof of its efficacy, according to the stringent “proof-of-concept” criteria set forth by Silverman (2001), is <br />lacking. Those conducting these operational efforts have weighed the evidence and concluded that the <br />potential benefits from precipitation augmentation in their programs outweigh the risks and costs involved. <br />Many of the current operational cloud seeding programs are being conducted in Texas where ten cloud <br />seeding projects were in operation in 2002 (Figure 1). The history of and the rationale for the Texas <br />operational cloud seeding programs have been addressed by Bomar et al. (1999). Most of the individuals <br />involved in these efforts agree with Silverman (2001) that the evaluation of seeding effectiveness in all the <br />programs should have high priority. They understand that seeding efficacy must be demonstrated or the <br />projects ultimately will end in disillusionment and controversy. Such demonstration is difficult, however, <br />because of the absence of treatment randomization. They understand also that the physical effects of <br />cloud seeding must be documented if the technology is to be viewed as credible means of enhancing the <br />water supply. <br />These Texas programs are merely one of many manifestations that the quantity and quality of fresh water <br />st <br />for human use is going to be a major issue during the 21 Century, especially in arid and semi-arid <br />regions of the globe. Water in such areas is inherently scarce, and this shortage of water will be <br />exacerbated by the continued migration of populations into these regions. The superposition of predicted <br />changes in climate and the deleterious effects of pollution on cloud forming processes and rainfall onto <br />these dry regions could result in disastrous water shortages that preclude human existence. Within the <br />past five years most areas of the United States have faced frightening droughts only to have periods of <br />wet weather remove the threat. The Southwestern U.S. is suffering still from major water shortages. <br />These problems are occurring with increasing frequency and it is only a matter of time before catastrophic <br />water shortages exact a terrible toll on human existence. <br />The potential responses to such a prospect are many and varied. One response would be to do nothing, <br />allowing natural processes to run their course, teaching people to live within their water means or forcing <br />them to vacate a region. Such a program of benign neglect costs virtually nothing to implement, if one can <br />ignore the cost in human misery. The opposite course of action would be to develop programs of water <br />conservation and enhancement to address the water needs of a region. No one opposes conservation, <br />and most entities concerned about water have implemented water-conservation programs. Opinions vary <br />on cloud seeding, depending on one’s point of view. There are always people willing to invest in <br />operational seeding, secure in their expectation that the benefits will exceed the costs involved. <br />Willingness to invest in cloud seeding research to buttress the operational activity has varied widely from <br />a highpoint in the late ‘60’s and ‘70’s to a prolonged low point beginning in the mid-1980’s and continuing <br />to the present day. The need has been constant, but the willingness to address it has not. <br />The irony in the current situation is that the time of maximum research capabilities coincides with a time of <br />almost non-existent research funding. The tools have never been better, but the fiscal means to make <br />use of them are non-existent. This includes multi-parameter radars, lidars, microwave radiometers, multi- <br />spectral satellite imagery, powerful fast computers, aircraft instrumentation to measure particle sizes from <br />fractions of a micron to millimeter sizes, state parameters and air motions, exacting navigation systems, <br />numerical models, and atmospheric tracers. <br />8 <br />
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