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<br />00038D <br /> <br />would receive the second 60,000 AF for direct use or off-stream <br />banking, and the remainder would be split 73% to California and <br />27% to Nevada. The first 60,000 AF available to Nevada would <br />include any amounts procured from Arizona through forbearance <br />agreements. <br /> <br />If it is Nevada unused apportionment, California would receive <br />52% and Arizona would receive 48%. <br /> <br />If it is California unused apportionment, Arizona would receive <br />71% and Nevada would receive 29%. <br /> <br />Any unused apportionment not utilized by one state would be allocated <br />to the other state. <br /> <br />Methodoloqv for using Recommended Surplus/Shortage Strateqy <br /> <br />An 80% assurance shortage trigger-versus-use curve has been developed <br />to protect Lake Mead elevation 1050 feet. Also, an 80% assurance <br />surplus. trigger-versus-use curve has been developed to protect <br />elevations of the shortage trigger curve. Thes"e relationships to use <br />were developed by simulating reservoir operations for 1000 possible <br />future runoff scenarios of 56 years in length. Figure 1 shows the <br />shortage trigger elevation in Lake Mead to protect elevation 1050 <br />feet, and the surplus trigger elevation to protect the shortage <br />trigger elevation, each as a function of total basin use. Based on <br />current projected surplus, normal, and shortage uses in the Upper and <br />Lower Basin, surplus and shortage trigger elevations of Lake Mead <br />have been determined for the next 56 years and are shown in Figure 2. <br /> <br />Each year during the AOP consultation period, any changes in <br />projected uses or difference in Powell and Mead storage can be used <br />to update the surplus/shortage triggers, of Figure 2 and used to <br />evaluate whether surplus, normal, or shortage should be determined. <br />If other operating criteria or hydrology data are changed, then the <br />trigger elevations-to-use relationships of Figure 1 should be <br />reevaluated first. As in past AOPs, by June if projected use and <br />forecast runoff warrant change, the determination of surplus, normal, <br />or shortage may be updated to reflect the current conditions. <br />