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tiCT-16-98 FRI 11:12 UPPER COLORADO RIVER COMM P. 18 on023'3 Six State Proposal Straw Man Draft October 13, 1998 accordance with the Bureau's studies, this level would not be guaranteed but risk of drawing down to below that level would be limited to 20%. When the model studies indicate that the reservoir level is in jeopardy, a first tier sho.rtage would be declared which would reduce Arizona's consumptive use by the CAP and other similar priority users to no more than 1,000,000 acre feet (about a 500,000 afreduction). Nevada would also share in shortages, but to a much more limited extent. If reservoir conditions continue to deteriorate, additional cuts in use by CAP will be required. VI. Overrun Accounting The Draft California 4.4' Plan includes a provision that allows individual entitlement holders to exceed their yearly apportionment. The overrun would be constrained by a maximum allowable accrual and would be subject to repayment in subsequent years. The overrun accounting provision is tied to the provisions for administration of agricultural entitlements. The Six States are concerned with the overrun provisions for a number of reasons. First, as the Colorado River enters into an era oflimits, the states expect the Bureau of Reclamation to increase its level of enforcement of entitlements. In essence, within the Lower Basin, the Bureau must play the role of the State Engineer and place limits on diversions by water users. Secondly, the Six States are leery of proposals that would allow significant diversions above the amount of water allowed to a state in shortage, normal~ or limited surplus years according to the proposal described in this paper. It would be terribly inequitable to California agricultural districts to overrun their diversions by 10%, which is over 300,000 acre feet, while at the same time calling 17