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OCT-16-98 FRI 11:11 UPPER COLORADO RIVER COMM P.17 OJrl238 Six State Proposal Straw Man Draft October 13, 1998 two primary reasons. First, the Arizona Water Bank has been created within Arizona primarily . to store water underground over the next twenty years to mitigate the affects of future shortages to Arizona municipal water users. Shortage criteria are critical to for the Water Bank planning. The volumes of water that Arizona will withdraw as either basic apportionment or surplus apportionment over the next tcn to twenty years is highly dcpendent on the need for water banking that will be used as shortage protection. The second primary reason for the need to establish shortage criteria is to be able to identify any negative impacts created by the implementation of the temporary surplus criteria. The Six States, but especially Arizona and Nevada. want to be able to identify when the release of water to California that_ were the result of either the panial of full M&I surplus tierst resulted in a negative affect that resulted in increased risk of shortages. This analysis can only be performed if the snortage criteria are known. The Bureau of Reclamation has been studying options for shortage criteria for a number or years. The framework for most of these strategies is to declare limited cutbacks well in advance of the point where those levels are critical. The lowest priority lower basin water user, the Central Arizona Project. bears the burden of most of the delivery reduction. The timing of the reduction is based on the use of computer models to simulate reservoir operations. The model study focuses on the statistical probability of reservoir levels dropping below a critical "protectU level. The Six States endorse this framework and propose to adopt the protect level of elevation 1050 which is the elevation of the intake structure for the Southern Nevada Water Project. The Bureau of Reclamation has nicknamed this shortage strategy "80P 1 050." In 16