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<br />SEPTEMBER 2006 DROUGHT UPDATE <br />Water Availability Task Force Co-Chairs <br /> Veva McCaig, CWCB - 303-866-3339 Jack Byers, DWR - 303-866-3581 <br />.co.us <br /> Email - genoveva.mccaig@state Email - jack.byers@state.co.us <br />Executive Summary <br />An El Niño event has developed and is likely to continue into early 2007. If the El Niño event strengthens further, that <br />would favor a wet fall from northeastern Colorado into southeastern Wyoming. A persistent El Niño should also benefit <br />water supplies in the southwest part of Colorado – an area negatively impacted by this year’s low snowpack and <br />precipitation values. <br />Statewide, the 2006 water year (Oct-Sept) precipitation ended on an average note with a slight drop from 2005. <br />Annual precipitation levels are at 96% of average with notable recovery in the southern to southwest portion of <br />the State, due to beneficial summer moisture. The southeast part of the State continues to be significantly below <br />average for annual precipitation despite summer rains. <br />The Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) values for August 2006 have increased in four of the seven basins <br />compared to July 2006 with marked improvement in the Rio Grande and San Juan Dolores Basins. Streamflows <br />throughout the State were about average with the exception of the South Platte Basin, where flows were <br />significantly below average and were tracking the driest year of 1964. <br />Reservoir storage throughout the State is near average for this time of year with some key exceptions. Irrigation <br />reservoirs in the South Platte Basin are extremely low levels and near empty in some cases, while municipal <br />reservoirs are in excellent shape. John Martin Reservoir, in the Arkansas Basin, may have reached its lowest <br />level, causing concern for the remaining fisheries pool. Reservoir carryover storage in the Gunnison Basin will <br />be greater than usual going into the winter season. <br />The agriculture sector in Colorado continues to experience impacts from persistent drought conditions over <br />several years. Harvested corn acreage in State is down by 110,000 acres from last year, in spite of the fact that <br />nd <br />2006 is expected to be the 2 largest corn crop on record nationally.This will negatively affect corn prices for <br />Colorado farmers. <br />Range and non-irrigated pasture conditions are still rough in places. Currently 36% of acreage is rated poor to <br />very poor, 42% is fair, and 20% is good on a statewide basis. While late season precipitation has been welcome, <br />it promotes excessive weed growth hampering grass recovery and forcing livestock producers to provide <br />supplemental feeding driving costs up. <br />According to the US Drought Monitor (9/19/06) drought intensity status has decreased for much of Colorado, <br />with the drought category for the northeast section being lowered from severe to moderate drought. The <br />category for the northwest, southeast, and central Colorado was also lowered from moderate to abnormally dry. <br />According to the National Interagency Fire Center the Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for Colorado, <br />Sept - Nov 2006 is normal resulting from beneficial monsoonal weather patterns in late summer. <br />Predictions from the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center are that Colorado will experience higher than <br />average temperatures through January 2007 and that Colorado has an equal chance of above or below normal <br />precipitation during that same time period. <br />