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Summary xiii site is closed and abandoned. For in-situ retorting, inadequate information is avail- able on the fate, once extraction operations cease, of salts and other minerals that are commingled with oil shale. Socioeconomic Impacts. Large-scale oil shale development will stimulate a sig- nificant increase in the populations of northwestern Colorado and Uintah County in Utah. Even a relatively small development effort, SUlch as might occur during the construction of a few initial commercial plants will result in a large population influx. Rapid population growth will likely stretch the financial ability of local communities to provide necessary public services and amenities. Leasing. The richest and most abundant deposits of oil shale are found on fed- erallands managed by the U.S. Department of the Intc~rior. As such, the course of oil shale development and its environmental impacts will be shaped by federal decisions regarding how much, when, and which specific lands will be offered for lease. At pre- sent, the Department of the Interior does not have available a strategic approach for leasing oil shale-bearing federal lands. The Energy Policy Act of 2005 has liberalized the lease ownership provisions of the Minerals Leasing Act of 1920, thereby remov- ing a major deterrent to private-sector investment in oil shale development. If mining and surface retorting turn out to be the pre~erred approach to oil shale development, the current lease size provisions of the Act will constrain resource recovery and increase per-barrel mining costs and land disturbance. Production Costs. Oil shale has not been exploited in the United States because the energy industry, after some halting efforts, decided that developing oil shale was economically unviable. Over the past two decades, very little research and develop- ment effort has been directed at reducing the costs of surface retorting. For thermally conductive in-situ retorting, costs might be competitive with crude oil priced at less than $30 per barrel, but the technical viability of in-situ retorting will not be fully established for at least six years. Market Risks. As with many commodities, crude oil prices are highly volatile. To hedge against the possibility of downward price movements, investments in pro- jects with high capital costs, such as oil shale development, tend to be deferred until a sufficient safety cushion builds up between anticipated production costs and what the market is willing to pay. An added degree of uncertainty is associated with the poten- tial response of OPEC nations to various market and technical developments. Water Consumption. About three barrels of water are needed per barrel of shale oil produced. Water availability analyses for oil shale development were conducted in the early 1980s. These analyses indicatcd that the earlie~;t constraining factors would be limitations in local water supply systems, such as reservoirs, pipelines, and ground- watcr development. A bigger issue is the impact of a strategic-scale oil shale industry on the greater Colorado River Basin. Demands for water are expected to continue to grow for the foreseeable future, making the earlier analy.ses regarding oil shale devel- opment outdated.