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<br />February 27, 1998 <br /> <br />q :'11 11.. ,.... "l 3 <br />UU:.LJ-:.. <br /> <br />· The generated statistics will be compared to historic statistics and differences noted. <br /> <br />· Significant discrepancies with historic data will be noted. <br /> <br />· Adjustments to the models will be made, and the process of verification repeated. The <br />second time the 1929-1996 extended base flow data set will be utilized to refine the <br />statistical parameters. <br /> <br />This subtask may be an extensive, iterative process since many models will not preserve key <br />historical statistical characteristics such as drought length, intensity, and deficit. The process <br />becomes iterative because properties such as a drought characteristics can only be evaluated <br />after the model is executed and the results are evaluated. Experience would indicate that no <br />more than two iterations of model selection will be necessary and therefore two iterations are <br />included in the budget. During the second iteration the 1929-1996 data set will be utilized. <br /> <br />Deliverables: <br /> <br />· verified Stochastic Model, and generated data <br />· draft and final summary memoranda will be prepared. <br /> <br />12.3 Evaluate Generated Data Sets <br /> <br />Primary Responsibility: Ayres <br /> <br />This subtask will analyze the data generated in Task 12.2. In this subtask, the final data <br />generated from the stochastic models select data sets for use by the CROSS Water Resource <br />Planning Model. Activities to be performed in this subtask include: <br /> <br />· evaluation and comparison of drought and wet hydrologic characteristics for the <br />stochastic, historic (1929-1996) and extended data sets. This will be graphical using box- <br />plot type format for standard statistics and for drought characteristics. <br />· A review of concurrent drought characteristics for the five basins will be made and <br />compared to historic data. This will be completed by analyzing five basin droughts and <br />then determining frequency of droughts in each individual basin during those system wide <br />drought periods. <br />· Select drought sequences of various return frequency for each basin and for five basins <br />together. This will include 30 to 50 year sequences that contain one drought each. The <br />droughts selected will represent the 25, 50, 100 year droughts in terms of cumulative <br />deficit. <br />· Setup drought sequences in baseflow file format. <br /> <br />Deliverables: <br />· Monthly data for one gage in each basin for selected drought periods <br />· Stochastic data for selected drought periods the one CROSS Water Resource Planning <br />Models in StateMod input format <br />· Draft and Final summary memorandum documenting drought characteristics of generated <br />data. <br /> <br />12.4 Design Interface <br /> <br />Primary Responsibility: Ayres <br /> <br />14 <br />