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<br />February 27, 1998 <br /> <br />OOlG12 <br /> <br />monthly flows for the total basin flows and for the sites in the one basin only. The SAMS <br />tool package could be used at a future time to disaggregate data at the other four basin total <br />flow points to their upstream gage sites. The form of the model will insure that some <br />statistical properties are preserved while other properties are not implicitly preserved. <br />Specific steps in this task are as follows: <br /> <br />· Obtain SAMS tool package from CSU, modify the model to access StateMod base flow <br />files and install SAMS on CROSS system. <br /> <br />· Modify SAMS code to compute drought statistics <br /> <br />· Determine gages to be used in analysis and determine which basin will be modeled in <br />detail. <br /> <br />· Extract historic base flow data sets to be used from the System. One gage in each basin <br />plus all gages in the selected basin. <br /> <br />· Run SAMS to determine data characteristics and best stochastic model structure. Also <br />generate drought characteristics of historic base flows. <br /> <br />· Calculate parameters of stochastic models for five individual basins and the aggregation <br />of the five basins, annual and seasonal flow. <br /> <br />· Calculate stochastic model parameters for annual and seasonal flows for the gages in one <br />basin. <br /> <br />· SAMS application will be documented such that generation of flows for gage sites in the <br />other four basins can be completed future phases of the project. <br /> <br />Developing climatic data to estimate demands will not be performed in this subtask. Rather <br />the program developed previously, which estimates demands as a function of a wet, dry or <br />average streamflow, is expected to be used to estimate demands that correspond to the <br />stochastic streamflows. <br /> <br />Deliverables: <br /> <br />· an operational Stochastic Model for the total Colorado River basin and one of 5 basins <br />within Colorado which will utilize the SAM's tool package. <br />· draft and final summary memoranda. <br /> <br />12.2 Verify Stochastic Model <br /> <br />Primary Responsibility: Ayres <br /> <br />In this subtask, the stochastic models will be verified to insure the characteristics and <br />interrelationships of the data have been preserved. <br /> <br />· Data will be generated at each gage site being modeled (one gage in each of the five basin <br />gages plus the remaining gages in one basin). A series of 100 sets of 100 years in length <br />will be generated. <br /> <br />· The statistical characteristics will be calculated for each data set generated. This will <br />include annual drought characteristics. <br /> <br />13 <br />