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<br />UUVJ1tJ <br /> <br />Draft - Do Not Cite <br /> <br />19 <br /> <br />August 2003 <br /> <br />3 RESULTS <br /> <br />3.1 MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM FLOWS <br /> <br />Tables 3 and 4 show maximum annual flows for the Delta and Grand JlIDction gages, <br />respectively. Maximum instantaneous annual flows for all scenarios would have occmred in <br />1984. The highest flows would have occmred for the Western A scenario (29,500 cfs) at the <br />Grand JlIDction gl;lge. This flow exceeds that of the historical gage flow (23,200 cfs) by about <br />27%. All of the other Western scenarios exceed the peak gage flow in 1984 at Grand JlIDction. <br />Peak flows for the Rec1amation,scenario (22,100 cfs) would be about 5% less than the maximum <br />historical flow for the gage. In dry years (e.g., 1989), the peak flows for the Western scenarios <br />are all equal to that of the gage; peak flows for the Reclamation scenario exceed the gage peak <br />flow by about 12%. <br /> <br />Tables 5 and 6 provide information on minimum flows at the Delta and Grand JlIDction <br />gages, respectively. For a wet year (e.g., 1984), the Western scenarios all result in minimum <br />flows that are less than the minimum gage value (up to 35% less. for Western C). The <br />Reclamation scenario produces the largest minimum flow at the Delta gage in 1984 (about 67% <br />greater than the minimum gage value). In 1990, Reclamation results in a minimum flow at the <br />Delta gage of 253 cfs. This value is about 53% less _than the minimum value for the gage <br />scenario and the Western scenarios. At the Grand JlIDction gage, the Reclamation scenario would <br />result in a minimum flow of 274 cfs in 1981. this value is about 43% less than the minimum <br />gage value and 50% less than any of the Western scenarios. <br /> <br />3.2 FLOW EXCEEDANCE <br /> <br />Figure 14 shows the probability of a flow exceeding a given value at the Grand JlIDction <br />gage for the six scenarios. Because of the similariti~s in the curves and the range of the predicted <br />flows (274 to 29,500 cfs), c10seups of the predicted results are shown in Figmes 15 and 16 for <br />flow ranges of 0 to 3,000 cfs and 15,000 to 30,000 cfs, respectively. <br />