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Last modified
7/28/2009 2:29:19 PM
Creation date
7/18/2007 2:18:33 PM
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Weather Modification
Title
Applied Weather Associates Responses to Corps of Engineers Questions on the AWS Study of Cherry Creek PMP, Sept 2006
Prepared For
USACE
Prepared By
Applied Weather Associates
Date
1/29/2007
County
Douglas
Weather Modification - Doc Type
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<br />~~t~ ~ <br /> <br />'I <br />I, / <br /> <br />then applied to the May 30-31, 1935 storm and results compared against USGS discharge <br />measurements at Kiowa Ck nr Elbert. <br /> <br />Basin parameters were based on previous studies of small basins having both rainfall and <br />discharge data within the Kiowa Ck Basin, Because only three sub-basins were considered for <br />this study, rainfall was calculated via area-weighted average over each basin, Precipitation <br />distribution was based on data and information provided by Mr, John Henz for storm cells A-2 <br />and A-3, However, due to further investigation of both storm cells, and discussion between Mr, <br />Henz, Mr, Don Jensen, and the author, Mr. Henz recommended that the mass curve for storm <br />cell A-2 be applied throughout the basin. <br /> <br />RESULTS <br /> <br />June 17, 1965 Storm <br /> <br />Table 1 indicates favorable comparison between HEC-I modeling results and USGS discharge <br />data for West Kiowa Ck at Elbert and Kiowa Ck at Kiowa,. However, HEC-l results are <br />somewhat low for Kiowa Ck at Elbert; that may be due to inaccurate reported rainfall over that <br />basin. Also, a precipitation distribution for the storm was not available; in lieu of that, an SCS <br />Standard Emergency Spillway (6-hr) distribution was applied. That was chosen because it is <br />representative of a fairly short duration, high-intensity storm. <br /> <br />Based on the results, it was felt that the HEC-l model for Upper Kiowa Ck basin can reasonably <br />simulate its hydrology for the purpose of this evaluation, and thus could be applied to other <br />storms (e.g., the May 30-31, 1935 storm), <br /> <br />May 30-31,1935 Storm <br /> <br />Table 1 indicates a very large discrepancy between HEC-l results and USGS discharge, data for <br />Kiowa Ck nr Elbert, The difference, 43,500 vs 130,000 cfs for USGS measured data and HEC-I <br />modeled results, respectively, is well beyond the range of hydrologic uncertainty and errors due <br />to RF/RO modeling. <br /> <br />For the purpose of illustrating the difference in rainfall (area-weighted average) needed to <br />simulate the measured discharge at Kiowa Ck nr Elbert, the area-weighted rainfall was <br />proportionally reduced for each sub-basin above Elbert via trial and error and input into HEC-l <br />until the measured value of 43,500 cfs was obtained for Kiowa Ck nr Elbert. That resulted in <br />area-weighted average values of5.8 in and 7,7 in (originally, 12.8 in and 18 in, respectively), for <br />Kiowa Ck at Elbert, and West Kiowa Ck, respectively - a reduction of about 42.5 percent of the <br />initial value. <br /> <br />It is not known if the rainfall reduction discussed in the above paragraph should be applied to <br />rainfall amount. spatial distribution. or a combination of both. Because ofthe linear relationship <br />of the computed area-weighted precipitation, a proportional 42.5 percent isohyetal reduction in <br />storm area (i,e., the area between each isohyetal would be reduced by 42.5 percent) would also <br />produce the same results. <br />
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