|
<br />.
<br />
<br />percent in the Bridger Range (Montana) and Climax I and II (central Colorado) Experiments were used.
<br />This increase combined with a storm seedability factor of 0.45, estimated from limited cloud modeling
<br />with the Colorado State University three-dimensional Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, yielded a
<br />precipitation seasonal increase of 1 1.25 percent, the value used to estimate headwaters additional
<br />precipitation.
<br />
<br />Estimates of water volume increases were made with an approximate 28 percent areal coverage of the
<br />Headwaters Region from a sample seeding design utilizing 55 seeding devices. Applying the 1 1.25
<br />percent increase to average winter precipitation in the Headwaters Region yielded an additional 59,727
<br />acre-feet of water in the areas covered by the seeding above 9000 feet in elevation. For the dry year (50
<br />percent of normal precipitation), seeding yielded an additional 29,863 acre-feet, and the seeded wet year
<br />produced 89,590 additional acre-feet (150 percent of normal precipitation). The increases grow to the
<br />respective 85,326, 42,663, and 127,989 acre-feet of water when the areal coverage by seeding devices is
<br />increased to 40 percent. The design phase ofthe program will produce a preferred seeding areal
<br />coverage. These figures are not adjusted for possibly differing seeding opportunity from one year type to
<br />another. Additionally, they do not incorporate effects of cloud seeding suspension criteria that will need
<br />to become a component of the program's environmental awareness.
<br />
<br />The annual cost ofthe first year of operational seeding is estimated at $1,025,320 and the tenth year at
<br />$1,329,899 using a 3 percent inflation factor per succeeding year. The estimated 10-year cost of
<br />operations is $11,715,638. Assuming 55 cloud treatment devices are use in seeding, the average annual
<br />cost of operations per seeding device is $21,301. This figure includes annual costs for all operational
<br />tasks, assuming automated conduct of cloud seeding, partially automated collection of field data, no
<br />observations by aircraft, and no local scanning radar. Weather service routine radar information from the
<br />network's Grand Mesa Colorado system would be available. Cost estimates would be revisited at the end
<br />ofthe design phase. Using a water value of $30 per acre-feet, the benefit/cost ratio is 2.18 for a normal
<br />year, using a seeding device areal coverage of 40 percent (likely achievable).
<br />
<br />The first year of the design phase will be devoted to planning, weather and cloud modeling,
<br />environmental compliance and permitting, study site selection for the design phase, preliminary
<br />surveying ofthe Headwaters Region, and contract procurement. The following two years will entail
<br />field data collection for two winters, data analysis, additional weather and cloud modeling, equipment
<br />specification and siting determination, environmental compliance, and public involvement. The cost of
<br />conducting the design phase effort, including environmental compliance estimated at $275,000, but short
<br />of equipment costs, is $1,498,040 for the three years. Total equipment costs are estimated at $1,801,480.
<br />The seeding equipment is estimated at $1,369,440.
<br />
<br />Weather modification programs must comply with National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)
<br />requirements if they include financial or regulatory participation by the Federal Government, or affects
<br />lands managed by Federal agencies. The proposed program faces compliance for the design phase
<br />possibly at a low complexity level, but because precipitation increases are expected in the operational
<br />seeding phase, compliance for it may be at a moderate to high complexity level requiring data collection
<br />and analysis. No cloud seeding or significant disturbance of ground or vegetation can occur until NEP A
<br />requirements are met. An interdisciplinary team of about six experts will be needed. Public involvement
<br />will be necessary. An involvement plan should be developed in consultation with appropriate Federal,
<br />State, and local agencies, plus interested and affected individuals and groups. A group of local citizens
<br />should be established to assist in scoping environmental issues and serve as a communications link to the
<br />
<br />VI
<br />
|