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<br />.. <br /> <br />4. OPERA llONAL CLOUD SEEDING PHASE <br /> <br />~ <br /> <br />4.1. General Features <br /> <br />The operational seeding phase recommended in this plan is for 10 years of cloud seeding duration. <br />Though there is no guarantee, it is believed that a 10-year period in not likely to be dominated by one <br />prominent climate type such as drought. From a seeding result evaluation standpoint, it is preferable to <br />encounter dry, wet and normal periods. Preferably, the sample sizes over a 1 O-year period would be <br />adequate for seeding result evaluation on each climate type. Also, a permit period of 10 to 15 years for <br />program field equipment siting seems prudent, given the substantial effort necessary to comply with <br />permitting requirements and environmental regulation. <br /> <br />The operational seeding phase cannot be described in substantial detail until the design phase is <br />conducted. It is anticipated that some field data collection will be necessary to at least periodically verify <br />that clouds are receiving treatment and a response is observed. The data collection must be adequate to <br />satisfy needs of the operational phase evaluation, including extensive precipitation data collection. <br />Automated photography of snow crystals can be pursued, if the proper equipment is assembled and tested <br />in the design phase. Prudent choices of data collection will reduce manpower and equipment needs and <br />save money, yet provide physical information adequate to confirm that statistical evaluation results from <br />precipitation were caused by cloud seeding. <br /> <br />It is clear that a strong and credible evaluation program must be an integral part of the operational seeding <br />phase. An evaluation plan developed in the design phase must be implemented. It is likely that some <br />amount of randomization will be necessary in the'operational phase. A possibility is the use ofa <br />randomly moving limited control. Randomly selected zone(s) would intentionally not be targeted. <br />Covariates will likely playa role in the evaluation. <br /> <br />Weather and cloud modeling is expected to continue during the operational phase to assist what is likely <br />to be a limited forecasting mode in the operational phase. Modeling estimates of precipitation and <br />possibly other variables may serve as covwriates in the evaluation. Application of a watershed model is <br />expected, to estimate streamflow increases from snowpack enhancement. <br /> <br />4.2. Operational Seeding Program Components <br /> <br />On a broad basis, the operational seeding phase will consist of determining the seedable cases, <br />conducting the seeding, and complying with the evaluation design (includes the conduct of scheduled <br />data analysis). The main program objective will be to seed all potential cases, within the operative <br />environmental compliance rules and established seeding suspension criteria. <br /> <br />The day-to-day operational duties include some or all of the following. <br /> <br />~ Field operations management and oversight <br />~ Limited weather forecasting using modeling and weather service collected weather data <br />~ Weather and cloud information monitoring in the Headwaters Region and surrounding area <br />~ Simplified daily operational plan formulation and relay to project personnel and management <br />~ Field equipment operation to conduct cloud seeding and collect scheduled data <br />~ Field data collection, preliminary quality checking and archiving <br />~ Limited data analysis <br />~ Equipment maintenance <br /> <br />20 <br />