WMOD00263 ‎(2)‎

• Applicant: CWCB
• Sponsor Name: USBR
• Project Name: Response to RFP
• Title: Numerical Simulations of Snowpack Augmentation for Drought Mitigation Studies in the Colorado Rocky Mountains
• Prepared For: USBR
• Prepared By: Joe Busto, CWCB
• Date: 8/20/2003
• Weather Modification - Doc Type: Application

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Task #4 - Perform forecasts for seeded and non-seeded days.

The Rams will be automatically run daily in a forecast mode (non-seed) during the 5-
month DWD operational cloud seeding program, using 0000 UTC Eta model analysis
fields for a period of 48 hours, with the lateral boundary region of the course grids
nudged to the Eta 3-hourly forecast fields. Precipitation accumulations for 6, 12, and
24 h periods simulated by the model for the selected observation sites will be the main
model output products. The CSU team will develop and implement the procedure to
automatically email these model estimated precipitation accumulations to the WWC (the
seeding contractor) in near real time for their use in cloud seeding decision making. A
full suite of forecast model products will be available at the RAMS@CSU website
(http://rams.atmos.colostate.edu/realtime/OOz/index.ohp3). These products include
mappings of many meteorological fields at the surface and aloft on all grids (coarse,
regional and fine grids) at 2-h intervals. Forecast time series of surface parameters and
forecast soundings are displayed at regular intervals over the regional and fine grids, as
well as east-west and north-south cross sections of condensate mixing ratios and other
meteorological fields.

On days when clouds are present and WWC conducts seeding operations, WWC will
provide the CSU team with their generator operation information via email. The model
will then be run a second time in a seed mode using the generation operations
information provided by WWc. The 24-hour precipitation accumulation estimated from
the second run will be archived for comparison with the estimates from the first model
forecast run, and observations from the Snotel and Gauge measurement sites. Ray
McAnelly will spend 1.0 month oftime over a 5-month period doing this task. PI Bill
Cotton will supervise the work. CWCB consultant Curt Hartzell will monitor the work to
ensure that all work is accomplished in a timely manner and coordinate between CSU and
WWC as necessary.

Task #5 - Perform evaluations of model predictions of precipitation using MRBP.

First, this involves updating and implementing MRBP analysis code. Dr. Paul Mielke
will devote 0.25 month to providing the CSU team with updated MRBP source code, and
will also provide advice and guidance on the use of the MRBP analysis approach. This
effort should be accomplished near the end ofthe 5-month DWD operational cloud
seeding program.

This task involves collecting, quality controlling and assembling observed 24-hour
precipitation accumulations at selected sites. It is anticipated that these observation sites
will be the same as those used in Tasks 3 and 4 above. This task then involves
processing the observed precipitation data and computing monthly totals. Ray McAnelly
from the CSU team will spend 1.0 month of his time on this task; this effort will be
spread out over the 5-month DWD operational cloud seeding program.

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