WSP12305

• File Number: 8040.400
• Description: Section D General Studies-Environmental
• State: CO
• Date: 5/1/1972
• Author: ROMCOE
• Title: The Limits to Growth A Synopsis
• Water Supply Pro - Doc Type: Publication

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The report ne~t describes the results of
varying the contributory factors; doubling
natural resource reserves; assuming unlimited
natural resource reserves through development
of perfect energy sources dnd recycling pro.
grams; strict pollution control; perfect
voluntary birth control ;and doubled agricul-
ture production. With the introduction of
each of these factors. the growth process is
extended d few years, but the eventual col-
lapse is never postponed more than a decade or
two. As the next graph shows, even the assump-
tion that all of the above solutions (whiCh
dre proposed by optimists every day) could be
put into practice simultaneously does not re-
move the ultimate limits to growth (Graph
Four).

Graph Four - WORLD MODEL WITH "UNLIMITED" RESOURCES,
POllUTION CONTROLS, AND "PERFECT" BIRTH
CONTROL

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In addition, it is highly likely that long
before the pl1ys i ca 1 1 i mi ts to grOwth were
reached, grOwth would have been stopped by
prOblems for which there are no technical
solutions (Such as International tensions be-
tween those countries possessing vast resource
reserves and those less well endowed).

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In arguing the nee": for a basic value change,
the authors state;

Applyil1g tec;moloil:- to tile ';an.Nl
prvsaure8 that the tmll'il'O~"'1ent li.rel'tB
agail1Bt ~~ Jrowth pl'OCe8d has Lee~ so
sJ.<c<:eadji.L ir. the past that a whole ~;.l-
tUN haa elJOlved <:I1"Ound the pri>J;;>i;:-le
of fighting agail1at limieB rather than
lea1"<i>J!1 to lil){,' with tr.er:. This "uL-
tl<l'e has bee~ reir:foreed by the appa1"8l1t
i.IToIlmsity of tile earth and ita re<lOl<l'CIid'
ar.d by ths NLatille a."taZl',eBII Of'1..'Vl ani
his a<:tivities. B..t the l'eZ-ati",;shiF
cet~~el1 the earth's li~t8 Jnd ~an'8
a~tivit'iea is ...har.ging. The c..rpo>!8>!tial
gn;l\..'th <!'.Q'Ve8 arO! :uidir.g"li lriO>';8 of
people ar.d billio'1e of ~0'1.8 0:' paUI.tants
to ths 8C08~8t~ ~h ~ear,

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Four simultaneous rechnological policies sre intrOduced in the world
model in an attempt to avoid rhe growth,and-collapse behavior 01 prevlovs
rvns. Reso(Jrces are fully alploited, and 7S percent 01 those (Jsed are rft-
cyelea Pollution generation is red(Jced 10 OnS'fourth Of its 1970 vs/ue.
Land yields are doubled, and el/ective methods Of biflh control are meae
available fa /he world population. The resul! is 8 temporary aChievement
01 a constant population ....ith II ....orld average income per capila fhat
reaches nearly the present US leval. Finally, though, industrial gro....th Is
hallad, and Ihe dealh rate rises as resources are dspleted, pollution accu-
mu/a/fts. snd tood prOdUCfion dftclinftS.

Now society is faced with the questions: ]s it betrf)l' to tri1 to Zive withi'1 troat lif"'lit by cl~C'epti".g a aeLf-
ir.1posed 1'Bst:o::tio>: 011 g1'04o'tn? 01' is it prcfe1"able to JO or. :.;t'CA."i1'l{l u'ltiZ i1O'"e othel' ".atuMZ :i."Iit l1.1'iaea. in
tr~ hope that <:It tha~ time another technologiC'aL leap will all~ g~.th to C'ol1ti'~e atil~ LO"~er?

The Limits to Growth argues that we must begin, inmediately. to change our values away from the growth ethic
to one of acceptance of a world situation in equilibrium, In a "steady state system" the birth rate would equal
the death rate and the rate of capital investlTlf'nt would equal the rate of depreciation. The report accepts the
fact that adoption of deliberate policies to restrict grOwth in the irrrnediate future would be more difficult
than continuation of present policies, especially for citizens of countries which are already highly de'o'eloped.
Since the world would never accept growth restriction if it meant freezing economic levels in their present
patterns, stand.rds of living would have to be made fIlOre nearly eq..al (and ..ndollbtedly lower for Vie more
prosperous countries).

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The proposed stabilized world model shown in Graph Five (page 5) indicates a possible situation if growth
limitation measures are put into effect in 1975. with industrial capital allowed to grow until 1990 to raise the
alleragestalldardof living.

If instead, llIiIndatory population control is replaced by a voluntary system including use of perfect birth
control techniques, world population would increase to higher level and the final equilibrium woold have a
lower standard of living. This model is shOwn in Graph Sh (page 5).

The authors suggest that delaylng implementatlon of growth control measures until 2000 would mean that an
equilibrium situation would be impossible to achieve. As Graph Seven (page 5) shows, nature would eventually
impose its own limits with a resultant collapse of the world system based on growth.

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The Club
sarre way

of Rome report challenges conventional economic wisdom and
as Freud and Kinsey challenged men's concepts about sex.

traditional Western thought in much the
The report confirms by fairly sophisticated